海康威视三季度毛利率环比降了，这个趋势会延续到四季度吗
- 现在单季毛利率 49.05%，同比还高 3.38 个百分点，也还显著高于公司过去几年 42% 到 46% 的区间
- 三季度单季营收 272.22 亿、同比 +13.71%，是本轮调整以来增速新高
- 扣非净利同比 +43.13%，比二季度还高
- · 同比 +3.38 个百分点：2025 年三季报同期单季毛利率 45.67%（累计 45.3662%）
- · 单季营收 272.22 亿、同比 +13.71%：三季报累计营收 740.44 亿减半年报 468.23 亿
- · 单季扣非 49.84 亿、同比 +43.13%：三季报扣非 126.96 亿减半年报 77.12 亿 = 49.84 亿
海康威视三季度毛利率环比降了，这个趋势会延续到四季度吗
The desk answers已核实Walnut, from public filings
大概率会延续一两个季度，但幅度是趋缓的，不是断崖。分三层说。
第一层，为什么会降。公司在 10 月 17 日业绩说明会上讲得很直白：上半年用掉的是涨价前备的低价存储芯片，这批料做成产品卖出去，毛利率被垫高；三季度低价料用得差不多了，成本端换成涨价后的料，而公司用移动平均法核算存货，成本是逐季往上爬的。原话是「低价原材料转收入确实对上半年毛利率有一定帮助，但存储价格自二季度以后涨幅开始收窄，公司采用移动平均法核算，每个季度成本侧均在上升」。
第二层，会延续多久。关键是低价库存这个缓冲垫还剩多少。公司从今年初就在阶段性增厚库存，备货周期通常覆盖几个季度。三季报存货还在增加，说明垫子还没用完，但已经在变薄。所以四季度大概率再降一点，之后随着高价料占比上升，毛利率会落到一个更接近真实成本的平台。
第三层，降到哪里算正常。现在单季毛利率 49.05%，同比还高 3.38 个百分点，也还显著高于公司过去几年 42% 到 46% 的区间。也就是说，即使再降两三个点，也还在历史正常范围内，不构成基本面恶化。
要看两个数。一是四季度单季毛利率能不能守住 48%——守住了说明成本传导可控，跌穿 46% 就要重新评估。二是存储现货价什么时候见顶，那决定这个压力还要持续几个季度。
同时提醒一句别搞混：毛利率在降，但收入在加速。三季度单季营收 272.22 亿、同比 +13.71%，是本轮调整以来增速新高；扣非净利同比 +43.13%，比二季度还高；前三季三项经营费用只增 4.62%。费用不涨、毛利额涨，经营杠杆在起作用。所以这是成本端的时差，不是需求端出问题。
—— 数据出处（每条都能回查）
· 单季毛利率 49.05%：2026 年三季报（2026-10-17 披露，公告编号 2026-029），累计毛利率 49.6296%、前三季营收 740.44 亿、营业成本 372.96 亿；单季由累计数相减得出。
· 同比 +3.38 个百分点：2025 年三季报同期单季毛利率 45.67%（累计 45.3662%）。
· 单季营收 272.22 亿、同比 +13.71%：三季报累计营收 740.44 亿减半年报 468.23 亿；去年同期同口径相减。
· 单季扣非 49.84 亿、同比 +43.13%：三季报扣非 126.96 亿减半年报 77.12 亿 = 49.84 亿；去年同期 89.71 亿减 54.89 亿 = 34.82 亿。
· 三项经营费用同比 +4.62%：三季报合并利润表——销售 90.15 亿 + 管理 23.70 亿 + 研发 93.46 亿 = 207.31 亿，去年同期 198.15 亿。
· 存货 333.34 亿：三季报资产负债表 2026-09-30"存货"科目 33,334,042,945.46 元。
· 管理层原话：2026-10-17 投资者关系活动记录表（业绩说明会，10 页 9,059 字）。
· 历史毛利率区间 42%~46%：公司 2021-2025 年报累计毛利率。
Hikvision's gross margin declined quarter-on-quarter in Q3 — will this trend continue into Q4?
Most likely it will continue for one or two quarters, but the pace will moderate; it won't be a cliff edge. Three layers.
Layer one: why it's falling. The company was very direct at its October 17 earnings briefing: in the first half it used low-priced memory chips stockpiled before the price increase, and selling products made from that material propped up the gross margin; by Q3 the low-priced material was mostly used up, and on the cost side it switched to material bought after the price increase, and since the company accounts for inventory using the moving average method, costs climb quarter by quarter. The original wording: "the conversion of low-priced raw materials into revenue did indeed help the gross margin in the first half to some extent, but the increase in memory prices began to narrow after the second quarter, and the company uses the moving average method for accounting, so costs rise every quarter."
Layer two: how long it will continue. The key is how much of the buffer — the low-priced inventory — is left. The company has been building up inventory in stages since the start of this year, and the stockpiling cycle typically covers several quarters. Inventory was still increasing in the Q3 report, which shows the cushion isn't used up yet, but it is already thinning. So Q4 will most likely see a further slight decline, and afterwards, as the share of high-priced material rises, the gross margin will settle onto a plateau closer to true cost.
Layer three: where it's normal for it to fall to. The current single-quarter gross margin is 49.05%, still 3.38 percentage points higher year-on-year, and still significantly above the company's 42% to 46% range of the past few years. That is, even if it falls another two or three points, it is still within the historical normal range and does not constitute a deterioration in fundamentals.
Watch two numbers. First, whether the Q4 single-quarter gross margin can hold 48% — holding it means cost pass-through is controllable; falling below 46% would require reassessment. Second, when memory spot prices peak, which determines how many more quarters this pressure lasts.
One reminder so as not to confuse things: the gross margin is falling, but revenue is accelerating. Q3 single-quarter revenue was 272.22 yi yuan, +13.71% year-on-year, a new high for growth since this round of adjustment; net profit excluding non-recurring items was +43.13% year-on-year, higher than in Q2; the three operating expenses in the first three quarters rose only 4.62%. Expenses not rising while gross profit rises — operating leverage is at work. So this is a timing gap on the cost side, not a problem on the demand side.
—— Data sources (each one can be verified)
· Single-quarter gross margin 49.05%: 2026 Q3 report (disclosed 2026-10-17, announcement no. 2026-029), cumulative gross margin 49.6296%, first three quarters revenue 740.44 yi yuan, operating cost 372.96 yi yuan; the single-quarter figure is derived by subtracting the cumulative figures.
· Year-on-year +3.38 percentage points: the same single-quarter gross margin in the 2025 Q3 report was 45.67% (cumulative 45.3662%).
· Single-quarter revenue 272.22 yi yuan, +13.71% year-on-year: Q3 report cumulative revenue 740.44 yi yuan minus the half-year report's 468.23 yi yuan; last year's same period subtracted on the same basis.
· Single-quarter net profit excluding non-recurring items 49.84 yi yuan, +43.13% year-on-year: Q3 report 126.96 yi yuan excluding non-recurring items minus the half-year report's 77.12 yi yuan = 49.84 yi yuan; last year's same period 89.71 yi yuan minus 54.89 yi yuan = 34.82 yi yuan.
· Three operating expenses +4.62% year-on-year: Q3 report consolidated income statement — selling 90.15 yi yuan + administrative 23.70 yi yuan + R&D 93.46 yi yuan = 207.31 yi yuan, versus 198.15 yi yuan in the same period last year.
· Inventory 333.34 yi yuan: Q3 report balance sheet, "inventory" line at 2026-09-30, 33,334,042,945.46 yuan.
· Management's original wording: 2026-10-17 investor relations activity record (earnings briefing, 10 pages, 9,059 characters).
· Historical gross margin range 42%~46%: the company's 2021-2025 annual report cumulative gross margins.