中际旭创2026年三季报里，1.6T光模块出货占比上升，为什么整体毛利率没有同步上升？请依据三季报和业绩说明会的披露，拆…
- Q2 46.42% 环比只 +0.36 个点
- 2025Q1 36.70% → 2025Q2 41.49% 环比 +4.79 个点
- 2026Q2 归母净利率 35.53% 环比 +6.12 个点
- 跳到 222.81 亿，但销售、管理、研发三项费用没有同比例增加，规模效应在摊薄费用率
- 2026Q1 归母净利率 29.41%
- 这中间的差额只能来自费用端：营收从 194.96 亿
中际旭创2026年三季报里，1.6T光模块出货占比上升，为什么整体毛利率没有同步上升？请依据三季报和业绩说明会的披露，拆分产品结构、客户议价、汇率以及上游EML/硅光芯片供给各自的影响，并指出四季度最该核验的两项数据。
The desk answers已核实Walnut, from public filings
先纠正一个前提：中际旭创的 2026 年三季报还没出。
10 月 15 日公司发了《董事会会议日期》公告，原文写的是：董事会会议将于 2026 年 10 月 29 日
（星期四）举行，藉以考虑及批准本公司及其附属公司截至 2026 年 9 月 30 日止九个月的三季度业绩
及其刊发。也就是说三季报和业绩说明会都在 10 月 29 日，今天问的这批数字现在不存在。
但你的疑问方向是对的，而且中报里已经能看到苗头。
2026 年单季毛利率：
Q1 46.06%
Q2 46.42% 环比只 +0.36 个点
而往前看，毛利率的升幅是在快速收窄的：
2025Q1 36.70% → 2025Q2 41.49% 环比 +4.79 个点
2025Q2 41.49% → 2026Q1 46.06% 跨两个季度 +4.57 个点
2026Q1 46.06% → 2026Q2 46.42% 环比只 +0.36 个点
这就是你直觉里那个"没同步上升"。1.6T 出货占比往上走，毛利率却几乎不动了。有两种可能：
一种是产品结构升级带来的毛利改善，被上游 EML／硅光芯片涨价或者汇率吃掉了；另一种是
高端产品为了抢份额让了价。中报没披露到能分开这两者的颗粒度，必须等三季报的分产品数据。
真正值得注意的不是毛利率，是净利率。
2026Q1 归母净利率 29.41%
2026Q2 归母净利率 35.53% 环比 +6.12 个点
毛利率只涨 0.36 个点，净利率涨了 6.12 个点。这中间的差额只能来自费用端：营收从 194.96 亿
跳到 222.81 亿，但销售、管理、研发三项费用没有同比例增加，规模效应在摊薄费用率。
换句话说，现在这家公司的利润弹性，主要不是"卖得更贵"，是"卖得更多、费用没跟着涨"。
这个结构有天花板。费用摊薄是一次性的，摊到一定程度就摊不动了；而毛利率升幅已经在收窄。
两头一起收紧，就是明年利润增速下台阶的时候。
10 月 29 日三季报出来，该核两个数：
一是单季毛利率能不能守住 46%。守不住，说明上游涨价或汇率把结构红利吃掉了，那 1.6T 的
故事就只是收入故事，不是利润故事。
二是单季费用率（三费／营收）。Q2 这个数被规模效应压得很低。如果 Q3 营收继续环比增但是
费用率不再降，说明摊薄到头了，净利率 35% 就是这轮的高点。
补两个位置数字，方便你判断赔率：10 月 23 日收 590.11 元，PE(TTM) 33.98，PB 18.08，
总市值 6549.85 亿。
来源：2026 年半年报、2025 年年报、2026-10-15《董事会会议日期》公告（巨潮 annoId 1225607707）、
10 月 23 日收盘行情。
In Zhongji Innolight's 2026 third-quarter report, the share of 1.6T optical module shipments rose, so why did the overall gross margin not rise in tandem? Please, based on the disclosures in the third-quarter report and the earnings briefing, break down the respective impacts of product mix, customer bargaining power, exchange rates, and the supply of upstream EML/silicon photonics chips, and point out the two data items most worth verifying in the fourth quarter.
First, let me correct a premise: Zhongji Innolight's 2026 third-quarter report has not yet been released.
On October 15, the company issued a "Date of Board Meeting" announcement, and the original text says: a board meeting will be held on October 29, 2026
(Thursday), to consider and approve the third-quarter results of the Company and its subsidiaries for the nine months ended September 30, 2026,
and their publication. That is to say, both the third-quarter report and the earnings briefing are on October 29; the batch of numbers you are asking about today does not exist yet.
But the direction of your question is right, and the signs can already be seen in the interim report.
2026 single-quarter gross margin:
Q1 46.06%
Q2 46.42% quarter-on-quarter only +0.36 points
And looking back, the increase in gross margin was narrowing rapidly:
2025Q1 36.70% → 2025Q2 41.49% quarter-on-quarter +4.79 points
2025Q2 41.49% → 2026Q1 46.06% across two quarters +4.57 points
2026Q1 46.06% → 2026Q2 46.42% quarter-on-quarter only +0.36 points
This is the "not rising in tandem" in your intuition. The share of 1.6T shipments is going up, yet gross margin is barely moving. There are two possibilities:
one is that the gross margin improvement brought by the product mix upgrade was eaten up by price increases in upstream EML/silicon photonics chips or by exchange rates; the other is that
high-end products gave up price to grab share. The interim report did not disclose enough granularity to separate the two; we must wait for the product-by-product data in the third-quarter report.
What is really worth noting is not gross margin, but net margin.
2026Q1 net margin attributable to parent 29.41%
2026Q2 net margin attributable to parent 35.53% quarter-on-quarter +6.12 points
Gross margin rose only 0.36 points, while net margin rose 6.12 points. The difference in between can only come from the expense side: revenue jumped from 194.96 yi yuan
to 222.81 yi yuan, but the three expenses of selling, administration, and R&D did not increase proportionally; scale effects are diluting the expense ratio.
In other words, this company's profit elasticity now mainly comes not from "selling at a higher price," but from "selling more, with expenses not rising along with it."
This structure has a ceiling. Expense dilution is one-time; once diluted to a certain extent, it can no longer be diluted further; and the increase in gross margin is already narrowing.
Both ends tightening together is when next year's profit growth will step down.
When the third-quarter report comes out on October 29, two numbers should be checked:
First, whether the single-quarter gross margin can hold 46%. If it cannot, it means upstream price increases or exchange rates have eaten up the structural dividend, and then the 1.6T
story is only a revenue story, not a profit story.
Second, the single-quarter expense ratio (three expenses/revenue). In Q2 this number was pressed very low by scale effects. If Q3 revenue continues to increase quarter-on-quarter but
the expense ratio no longer falls, it means dilution has reached its end, and the 35% net margin is the peak of this round.
Two more reference numbers to help you judge the odds: the October 23 close was 590.11 yuan, PE(TTM) 33.98, PB 18.08,
total market capitalization 6549.85 yi yuan.
Sources: 2026 interim report, 2025 annual report, the October 15, 2026 "Date of Board Meeting" announcement (Cninfo annoId 1225607707),
and the October 23 closing market data.