Copper clad laminate continued to raise prices in Q3, and PCB manufacturers' costs will only be recognized one quarter later. In the 2026 annual reports of Jingwang Electronics (603228) and Chongda Technology (002815), the single-quarter gross margin in Q4 will be several percentage points lower than in Q3—can the annual reports disclosed in March 2027 provide the answer?
Copper clad laminate continued to raise prices in Q3, and PCB manufacturers' costs will only be recognized one quarter later. In the 2026 annual reports of Jingwang Electronics (603228) and Chongda Technology (002815), the single-quarter gross margin in Q4 will be several percentage points lower than in Q3—can the annual reports disclosed in March 2027 provide the answer?
覆铜板三季度继续涨价，PCB厂的成本要晚一个季度才认。景旺电子(603228)和崇达技术(002815)2026年报里，四季度单季毛利率会比三季度低几个百分点——2027年3月披露的年报能给出答案吗？
The desk answersverifiedWalnut, from public filings
I can give the answer, and only the annual report can give it. Fourth-quarter single-quarter gross margin equals the annual report's full-year operating cost minus the third-quarter report's first-three-quarter operating cost; both numbers are already on the table: Jingwang's first-three-quarter operating cost was 112.58 yi, Zonda's 57.45 yi. But the direction of "a few percentage points lower than the third quarter" finds no evidence in the third-quarter statements; the two companies' third-quarter gross margins jumped upward.
The price increase is real, and it was still accelerating in the third quarter
Look upstream first. Shengyi Technology makes copper-clad laminate; its third-quarter single-quarter gross margin was 41.63%, versus 32.63% in the second quarter and 28.14% in the same period last year. That is 9 points more in one quarter and 13.5 points in a year. Those 9 points are what the copper-clad laminate price increase looks like on the statements.
Zonda's September 17 research record pins down the timing very concretely: since June 2024, the price growth of core main materials such as copper-clad laminate, copper, and gold salt has accelerated significantly, and they are currently in high-level oscillation.
Zonda's November 6 earnings briefing explained the cause even more bluntly: "The core driver of this round of CCL price increases is a hard constraint on the supply side—capacity for high-end glass fiber cloth and HVLP copper foil is being heavily crowded out by AI demand, and the expansion cycle is long with limited elasticity." This is a supply-side gap; even if demand weakens, it cannot retreat.
The transmission path is not long. Copper-clad laminate makers raise prices, PCB makers' raw material purchase prices rise, they stock up on inventory first, and then it is carried into operating cost as shipments go out; that is how gross margin gets changed. In between there is only inventory as a buffer.
Most of the expensive material bought at the end of the third quarter will only be carried into cost as shipments go out in the fourth quarter. If this price increase is to leave a trace on the statements, the first stop is the fourth-quarter 2026 gross margin, and the second stop is the year-on-year comparison in the first-quarter 2027 report.
Recognized a quarter late: right on the books, not necessarily in profit
Inventory does lag cost. Jingwang's end-September inventory was 47.52 yi, equivalent to 99.6 days based on third-quarter single-quarter operating cost of 43.88 yi, versus 76.5 days at the end of last year. Zonda's end-September inventory was 16.73 yi, equivalent to 67.3 days, even shorter than the 71.1 days at the end of last year.
But the pricing side is also moving, in the same direction. Zonda's third-quarter report said the reason operating revenue rose 35.55% was "increased orders; rising costs led to higher unit prices"; Jingwang wrote "rising upstream material prices drove growth in product sales prices." Both companies' exact words are the same thing: the price increase has been passed on.
More critical is what Zonda said in September: for price-sensitive products, it is "implementing a cost-plus and floating quotation mechanism, shortening the quotation cycle." This is actively compressing the transmission lag, not waiting a quarter to recognize it.
As a result, in the third quarter both companies' single-quarter operating costs rose 41% year-on-year, while revenue rose 58% for one and 66% for the other. Costs rose more slowly than revenue, so gross margin expanded.
| Single-quarter gross margin (%) | 2025Q3 | 2026Q2 | 2026Q3 | Year-on-year change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shengyi Technology | 28.14 | 32.63 | 41.63 | 13.48 |
| Kinwong Electronic | 21.96 | 21.43 | 33.73 | 11.77 |
| Sunda Technology | 21.30 | 20.39 | 29.67 | 8.37 |
All three links in one chain expanding gross margin at the same time shows that this round is not cost squeeze but demand pulling it along. Only because downstream can raise prices does upstream dare to raise prices.
The fourth quarter will most likely still fall, but what falls is not the copper-clad laminate bill
Over the past three years, both companies' fourth-quarter gross margins were lower than in the third quarter, not a single year missed. But the size of the decline runs opposite to the copper-clad laminate price increase: in 2023, before the increase began, Jingwang fell 6.86 points and Zonda fell 4.50 points; after the increase began in June 2024, in 2024 they fell only 3.22 and 1.71 respectively, and in 2025 only 0.40 and 1.04.
If the fourth-quarter decline really were squeezed out by copper-clad laminate costs, the years with the fiercest price increases should have seen the biggest declines. In reality, the more prices rose, the more stable they became.
| Change in Q4 vs Q3 (percentage points) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jingwang Electronics | (6.86) | (3.22) | (0.40) |
| Chongda Technology | (4.50) | (1.71) | (1.04) |
So the fourth-quarter decline looks more like year-end inventory write-down provisions, inventory-count differences, and annual audit adjustments, landing in asset impairment losses and year-end adjustments within operating cost; it is a separate account from raw material prices.
The annual report in March 2027 can answer "how many points lower," but it cannot answer "whether copper-clad laminate did it." To separate these two accounts, one must wait for the inventory write-down provision details and operating cost composition in the annual report notes; the income statement itself cannot break them out.
Exactly how many points, no one can give right now
The fourth quarter has only run five weeks. Inferring from the third-quarter books can only give direction: the fourth quarter is more likely a small pullback from a high level, with magnitude close to the seasonal range in the table above, rather than several points being eaten away by copper-clad laminate.
One variable is worth watching: Jingwang's inventory rose from 25.16 yi at the end of last year to 47.52 yi, up 89%, while revenue in the same period rose only 37%. If this is material stocked ahead of the price increase, then the fourth quarter actually has surplus grain and gross margin can hold; if what is stocked is work in progress corresponding to orders, then it will have to be released in the fourth quarter. The third-quarter report gives only total inventory and cannot distinguish raw materials from work in progress; this too must wait for the annual report notes.
Zonda's structure is the opposite: inventory days have not lengthened, and cost transmission relies on the quotation mechanism rather than inventory, so its fourth-quarter gross margin should be more sensitive to copper-clad laminate prices than Jingwang's. This is also why the two companies need to be looked at separately next March.
At its November 6 meeting, Zonda was asked by investors to keep fourth-quarter gross profit stable; its answer was "strive to keep gross margin stable; but raw material prices, exchange rates, and market fluctuations still carry uncertainty." Translated, that means: we dare not promise.
When I would be wrong: if in the 2026 annual report the quarter-on-quarter increase in fourth-quarter single-quarter operating cost exceeds the quarter-on-quarter increase in revenue by more than 3 percentage points, while Shengyi Technology's fourth-quarter gross margin is still moving upward, that would show that the price increase has truly broken at the PCB link, and the judgment that "cost-plus transmission does not pressure gross margin" would not hold.
Source: Shenzhen Kinwong Electronic Co., Ltd. "2026 Third Quarter Report", October 27, 2026; Suntak Technology Co., Ltd. "2026 Third Quarter Report", October 30, 2026; Suntak Technology Co., Ltd. "Investor Relations Activity Record Form" No. 2026-006, September 17, 2026; Suntak Technology Co., Ltd. "Investor Relations Activity Record Form" No. 2026-007, November 6, 2026; Guangdong Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. "2026 Third Quarter Report", October 30, 2026.
能给答案，而且只有年报能给。四季度单季毛利率等于年报全年营业成本减三季报前三季营业成本，两条数都已经在桌上：景旺前三季营业成本112.58亿，崇达57.45亿。但“比三季度低几个百分点”这个方向，三季度报表里找不到证据，两家三季度毛利率是往上跳的。
涨价是真的，而且三季度还在加速
先看上游。生益科技做覆铜板，三季度单季毛利率41.63%，二季度32.63%，去年同期28.14%。一个季度多出9个点，一年13.5个点。这9个点就是覆铜板涨价在报表上的样子。
崇达9月17日的调研记录把时间点写得很实：自2024年6月起，覆铜板、铜、金盐等核心主材的价格增速显著加快，目前处于高位震荡。
崇达11月6日业绩说明会把原因讲得更直白：“本轮CCL涨价的核心驱动是供给端硬约束——高端玻纤布与HVLP铜箔产能被AI需求大量挤占，扩产周期长、弹性有限。”这是供给端的缺口，需求转弱也退不回去。
传导路径不长。覆铜板厂涨价，PCB厂的原材料采购价上升，先进存货，再随出货结转进营业成本，毛利率就是这么被改的。中间只有存货这一道缓冲。
三季度末买进来的贵料，多数要到四季度才随出货转成本。这笔涨价如果要在报表上留痕，第一站是2026年四季度的毛利率，第二站是2027年一季报的同比。
晚一个季度才认，账上对，利润上不一定
存货确实会滞后成本。景旺9月末存货47.52亿，按三季度单季营业成本43.88亿折算合99.6天，去年末是76.5天。崇达9月末存货16.73亿，合67.3天，比去年末的71.1天还短。
但定价那一端也在动，方向一致。崇达三季报写营业收入增35.55%的原因是“订单增加，成本上涨导致单价提升”；景旺写的是“上游材料价格上涨驱动产品销售价格增长”。两家原话都是同一件事：涨价传下去了。
更关键的是崇达9月说的那句，对价格敏感产品“推行成本加成与浮动报价机制，缩短报价周期”。这是主动在压传导时滞，不是等着一个季度后才认账。
结果是三季度两家单季营业成本同比都涨41%，收入一个涨58%，一个涨66%。成本涨得比收入慢，毛利率就扩了。
| 单季毛利率（%） | 2025Q3 | 2026Q2 | 2026Q3 | 同比变动 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 生益科技 | 28.14 | 32.63 | 41.63 | 13.48 |
| 景旺电子 | 21.96 | 21.43 | 33.73 | 11.77 |
| 崇达技术 | 21.30 | 20.39 | 29.67 | 8.37 |
一条链上三个环节同时扩毛利率，说明这轮不是成本挤压，是需求拉着走。下游能提价，上游才敢提价。
四季度大概率还是要跌，但跌的不是覆铜板这笔账
过去三年，两家四季度毛利率都低于三季度，一年没漏过。但跌幅跟覆铜板涨价是反向的：2023年还没开涨，景旺掉6.86个点、崇达掉4.50个点；2024年6月开涨之后，2024年分别只掉3.22和1.71，2025年只掉0.40和1.04。
如果四季度的跌幅真是被覆铜板成本压出来的，涨价越猛的年份应该跌得越多。实际是越涨越稳。
| 四季度较三季度变化（百分点） | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 景旺电子 | (6.86) | (3.22) | (0.40) |
| 崇达技术 | (4.50) | (1.71) | (1.04) |
所以四季度的跌幅更像年终的存货跌价准备、盘点差异和年度审计调整，落点是资产减值损失，以及营业成本里的年末调整，跟原材料价格是两笔账。
2027年3月的年报能回答“低几个点”，回答不了“是不是覆铜板干的”。要把这两笔分开，得等年报附注里的存货跌价准备明细和营业成本构成，利润表本身拆不出来。
具体几个点，现在谁也给不出
四季度才走了五周。凭三季度的账推，只能给方向：四季度更可能是高位小幅回落，量级贴近上面那张表的季节性区间，而不是被覆铜板吃掉几个点。
有一个变量值得盯：景旺存货从去年末的25.16亿涨到47.52亿，增89%，同期收入只增37%。如果这是赶在涨价前备的料，四季度反而有余粮，毛利率扛得住；如果备的是订单对应的在制品，四季度就得吐出来。三季报只给存货总额，分不出原材料和在产品，这个也要看年报附注。
崇达的结构相反，存货天数没拉长，成本传导靠报价机制而不是靠库存，所以它四季度毛利率对覆铜板价格的敏感度应该比景旺更高。这也是两家明年三月要分开看的原因。
崇达在11月6日那场会上被投资者要求把四季度的毛利维持住，回答是“力争保持毛利率稳定；但原材料价格、汇率及市场波动仍存不确定性”。翻译过来就是：不敢承诺。
什么情况下我错了：如果2026年报里四季度单季营业成本的环比增幅比收入环比增幅高出3个百分点以上，同时生益科技四季度毛利率还在往上走，那说明涨价在PCB这一环真断了，“成本加成型传导不压毛利率”这个判断就不成立。
- 01深圳市景旺电子股份有限公司《2026年第三季度报告》，2026年10月27日
- 02崇达技术股份有限公司《2026年第三季度报告》，2026年10月30日
- 03崇达技术股份有限公司《投资者关系活动记录表》编号2026-006，2026年9月17日
- 04崇达技术股份有限公司《投资者关系活动记录表》编号2026-007，2026年11月6日
- 05广东生益科技股份有限公司《2026年第三季度报告》，2026年10月30日
## 先把能算的和不能算的分开
2026年报要2027年3月才披露，现在最新的文件是2026年三季报：景旺10月27日，崇达10月30日。四季度才走了五周，所以"低几个点"现在只能给判断，给不了报表数。
但算式已经齐了。四季度单季毛利率等于全年营收减前三季营收、全年成本减前三季成本，两个减法一除。景旺前三季营收152.33亿、营业成本112.58亿；崇达营收75.81亿、成本57.45亿。年报一出，四季度就是这两个数减出来的。
年报还能多给两张季报给不了的表：分产品毛利率，和营业成本的构成（直接材料、人工、制造费用）。季报只有合并数，"覆铜板涨了多少、售价提了多少、结构变了多少"三件事混在一起；年报能把材料这一笔单独拎出来，崇达还能拆到PCB、IC载板、废料，景旺只能拆到印制电路板整体。
## 成本滞后是真的，但只值一到两个点
先给这件事定个量级。景旺2025年报：直接材料占印制电路板营业成本61.64%，直接材料成本同比涨24.33%，印制电路板毛利率16.95%，比上年降1.83个点。崇达2025年报：原材料占PCB营业成本74.03%（2024年69.52%），原材料成本涨30.00%，PCB毛利率11.42%，降3.18个点。
材料涨了25%到30%，毛利率只让了1.8到3.2个点。传导不是百分之百，但漏水只有一成半。折成敏感度：材料每涨10%，景旺毛利率让0.75个点，崇达让1.06个点。
| 公司 | 直接材料占成本 | 2025材料成本同比 | 2025分产品毛利率变动 | 材料每涨10%的净影响 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 景旺电子 | 61.64% | +24.33% | (1.83) | (0.75) |
| 崇达技术 | 74.03% | +30.00% | (3.18) | (1.06) |
所以"成本晚一个季度认"成立，但量级是一到两个点，不是四季度毛利率的主角。上游那头也没松：生益科技9月15日投资者接待日说订单持续饱满，三季度毛利率还在往上走，PCB这头的成本就还有得追。谁要把四季度掉的五个点全记到覆铜板账上，先得解释：2025年材料涨了两成半到三成，为什么两家分产品毛利率只掉了1.83和3.18个点。这一到两个点是全年摊下来的净影响；单季如果提价停住、成本一次结清，那一笔会比这个大，这也是后面把上限放到六到八个点的原因。
## 三季度那十二个点，不是成本滞后能解释的
景旺三季度单季毛利率33.73%，二季度21.43%，环比加12.30个点；崇达29.67%，环比加9.28个点。这个跳升的幅度，是2025年全年材料通胀影响的三到七倍。
如果只是成本滞后，2025年材料涨三成时也该出现同样的跳升。但没有：2025年景旺四个季度是20.78、21.95、21.96、21.56，崇达是23.35、19.93、21.30、20.26，全年平的。
```chart
type: group
title: 两家单季毛利率在三季度同时跳升
unit: %
labels: 2025Q4, 2026Q1, 2026Q2, 2026Q3
values: 21.56, 18.76, 21.43, 33.73
values2: 20.26, 19.82, 20.39, 29.67
legend: 景旺电子|崇达技术
```
景旺三季报自己写的是三条原因：高速通信与AI数据基础设施的高性能PCB收入增加、上游材料涨价驱动售价增长、订单结构优化。收入能留到四季度，结构能留，售价重估能不能留，是问号。
## 同行横截面：跳得最高的，不是最该跳的
| 公司 | 2026Q2 | 2026Q3 | 环比变动 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 景旺电子 | 21.43 | 33.73 | 12.30 |
| 崇达技术 | 20.39 | 29.67 | 9.28 |
| 沪电股份 | 41.28 | 44.02 | 2.74 |
| 深南电路 | 32.41 | 34.85 | 2.44 |
| 胜宏科技 | 32.10 | 34.17 | 2.07 |
| 东山精密 | 20.89 | 23.07 | 2.18 |
| 鹏鼎控股 | 24.86 | 26.54 | 1.68 |
如果跳升来自AI高性能板的结构升级，沪电和深南应该跳得最多——它们二季度毛利率已经41.28%和32.41%，高端板占比不会低。实际它们只动了两个多点，景旺崇达动了九个到十二个点。
这个倒挂说明跳升里有"低基数+短缺提价"的成分。结构升级一个季度抬两三个点（沪电、深南就是这么走的），抬不出十二个点。低基数提价最容易在供给紧张缓解时回吐。
## 崇达的合并毛利率是个幌子
崇达2026半年报分产品：PCB板收入33.92亿、成本31.32亿、毛利率7.67%，同比降4.62个点；IC载板4.06亿、毛利率23.31%，升10.36个点；废料及其他5.32亿收入，按营业成本差额倒算成本只有0.15亿，毛利率97.2%，贡献毛利5.17亿，占上半年毛利8.72亿的59.3%。
也就是说，上半年合并毛利率20.13%里，一大半是废料，不是PCB。覆铜板涨价压的是7.67%那块。三季度合并毛利率到29.67%，如果废料还是四五亿量级，倒算回去，PCB毛利率落在17%到20%——这才是四季度要守的线。
景旺也有这块：2025年其他业务收入9.35亿、占营收6.1%，按毛利倒算贡献了26%的毛利。两家的合并毛利率都被抬过，崇达抬得更狠。季报给不了这个拆分，崇达的半年报和年报给得了；景旺半年报没有分产品表，2025年报也只有印制电路板一个口径，2026年报能给的是全年PCB毛利率和直接材料占比，给不了AI和汽车各占多少。
## 存货：景旺囤料，崇达囤在制
景旺半年报原材料12.69亿，比年初7.52亿增68.8%，原材料占存货35.5%；在产品、库存商品、发出商品分别增39.3%、20.3%、21.0%，总存货35.72亿，增39.1%。三季度末47.52亿，比年初25.16亿增89%。
崇达半年报原材料4.11亿，增41.0%，占存货24.7%；在产品增43.0%，发出商品反而降12.8%；总存货16.69亿，增15.1%。三季度末16.73亿，比年初11.58亿增44.5%。崇达2025年报把动机写得很直白："结合订单增长增加库存及原料涨价趋势，公司提前备料控成本。"
含义分两头。景旺的原材料缓冲厚，四季度成本压力小，但三季度高价买的料还在库里，压力往后推到2027年一季度。崇达的缓冲薄，材料又占成本74%，四季度对覆铜板更敏感。所以两家不能给同一个答案。
## 两家的毛利率不能直接横比
景旺半年报写的是存货按标准成本法核算，崇达是月末一次加权平均法。同一批涨价料，标准成本法下价差先归集再分摊，年末还可能有一次清算；加权平均法当月就摊进成本。两家四季度毛利率各自和自己的三季度比可以，放在一张表上比会错。
## 反方最强的那个说法
一个不同意的人会说：2021年覆铜板大涨，景旺四季度只掉2.22个点、崇达2.13个点；2025年材料涨了两成半到三成，全年只掉1.8和3.2个点。传导效率这么高，四季度最多掉一两个点，甚至因为AI结构继续往上。拿2023年下行周期的负6.86和负4.49当模板，是周期错配。
| 四季度较三季度（百分点） | 景旺电子 | 崇达技术 |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | (2.22) | (2.13) |
| 2022 | (1.19) | 3.60 |
| 2023 | (6.86) | (4.49) |
| 2024 | (3.22) | (1.70) |
| 2025 | (0.40) | (1.04) |
这个反驳有道理，但它漏了一点：2021和2025的涨价是渐进的，没有2026年三季度这种单季十二个点的价格重估。回吐的基准不是正常季节性，是异常基数。33.73%里只要有四个点是价格重估，四季度把这四个点吐掉，就超过2021年全年的跌幅。
还有一条：崇达说成本加成、浮动报价、缩短报价周期，说明成本能转出去。但成本加成保的是毛利率不继续恶化，保不住三季度的超额毛利；报价周期要缩短，恰恰说明原来的周期长到一个季度的成本错配能发生。
## 数字落在哪
景旺四季度环比降2到4个点，中性3个点；崇达降3到5个点，中性4个点。上限6到8个点，前提是三季度那次价格重估在四季度全部回吐；下限1到2个点，前提是只剩成本滞后这一笔。崇达比景旺多，是因为材料占比74%对62%、存货缓冲薄、核心PCB毛利率只有7.67%。景旺三季度跳得更高，本来该吐更多，但它的囤料更厚，把时点往后推，两股力抵掉一部分。
## 什么情况下我错了
- 年报四季度单季毛利率不低于三季度，说明价格重估完全站住，成本滞后被提价覆盖。
- 四季度单季营业成本环比涨幅低于收入环比涨幅，说明囤料缓冲起作用，成本没追上。
- 景旺年报直接材料占成本降到55%以下，且四季度毛利率降幅小于2个点，说明产品结构真换了，不是价格。
- 2027年一季报毛利率环比回升超过2个点，说明四季度的下滑是一次性结账，不是持续传导。
来源：深圳市景旺电子股份有限公司《2026年第三季度报告》，2026年10月27日；《2026年半年度报告》，2026年8月22日；《2025年年度报告（修订后）》，2026年4月23日；《投资者关系活动记录表》编号2026-007，2026年11月5日。崇达技术股份有限公司《2026年第三季度报告》，2026年10月30日，公告编号2026-074；《2026年半年度报告》，2026年8月29日；《2025年年度报告》，2026年4月29日；《投资者关系活动记录表》，2026年11月6日。广东生益科技股份有限公司《2026年第三季度报告》，2026年10月30日。