002415 三季报里存货涨到 333 亿，这个备货是主动还是被动，四季度会不会计提跌价

In the 002415 third-quarter report, inventory rose to 333 yi yuan. Is this stockpiling proactive or passive, and will an impairment provision be recognized in the fourth quarter?

The bulk of this round of stockpiling is proactive, with a small portion carrying a passive element; in the fourth quarter there will most likely be another inventory impairment provision, but the magnitude will be only 1 to 3 yi yuan, which does not change the big picture of full-year profit.

First, let's lay out the numbers clearly. On September 30, 2026, inventory was 333.34 yi yuan, versus 204.72 yi yuan at the end of 2025, an increase of 128.62 yi yuan over nine months, or 62.8%; in the same period last year it was 201.05 yi yuan, so year-on-year it is 132.29 yi yuan higher, up 65.8%. Revenue in the same period was 740.44 yi yuan, up only 12.60%. Inventory growth is more than five times revenue growth; looking at just these two numbers, it really does look like goods are not selling and are piling up in the warehouse. One more reminder: 333.34 yi yuan is the net amount after deducting impairment provisions; the provision balance at the end of September is not disclosed in the quarterly report, and at the end of June it was 14.90 yi yuan.

The interim report breaks inventory down, showing what exactly is piling up. On June 30, raw materials had a book balance of 103.05 yi yuan, versus 60.42 yi yuan in the same period last year, 42.63 yi yuan more, up 70.6%, the fastest-growing line item; finished goods were 186.47 yi yuan, versus 129.76 yi yuan in the same period last year, 56.71 yi yuan more, up 43.7%; work in progress was 12.11 yi yuan, and contract fulfillment costs were 8.16 yi yuan. Raw materials are growing faster than finished goods; this is the pattern of locking in materials in advance, not the pattern of unsold finished goods.

At the company's October 17 earnings briefing, this question was asked directly. Board secretary Feng Wei's exact words were: "After memory prices rose sharply, inflation in the electronics industry has gradually spread to product lines such as power supplies and passive components, so since the start of this year large companies in the industry have generally adopted a strategy of temporarily increasing inventory to cope with supply fluctuations." On share, he said: "We have always attached importance to building stable and mutually trusting partnerships with the upstream supply chain, and we have stronger resilience in the continuity of stockpiling key materials." This is the company itself characterizing this stockpiling as a proactive move to cope with price increases, not passive accumulation.

Cash flow is consistent with this. In the first three quarters, cash paid for goods purchased and services received was 539.57 yi yuan, versus 439.89 yi yuan in the same period last year, 99.67 yi yuan more, an increase of 22.7%; while operating costs rose only from 359.26 yi yuan to 372.96 yi yuan, 13.71 yi yuan more. The extra 80-plus yi yuan paid did not go into the income statement; it became inventory and goods in transit. Net cash flow from operating activities was 72.13 yi yuan, down 47.34% year-on-year; the reason given in the third-quarter report is just one sentence: "mainly due to increased procurement and stockpiling expenditures."

The order side also provides support. Contract liabilities were 52.74 yi yuan, versus 35.97 yi yuan in the same period last year, up 46.6%, so advance receipts are increasing. Accounts receivable were 283.66 yi yuan, versus 331.74 yi yuan in the same period last year, down 14.5%; revenue rose 12.6% while accounts receivable fell, indicating that this round of growth was not propped up by loosening credit terms.

The passive portion has to be acknowledged. Inventory turnover days lengthened from 137 days in the third quarter of last year to 206 days in the third quarter of this year (method: average inventory for the single quarter divided by single-quarter operating costs, then multiplied by 91 days), 69 days more. Finished goods rising 43.7% is indeed faster than revenue at 12.6%, so production preparation has run ahead of sales. This part cannot be explained by price increases and can only be verified by shipments in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year.

For impairment, first look at the policy. The company's policy is to measure at the lower of cost and net realizable value on the balance sheet date, and to recognize a provision when the latter is lower. In terms of actual timing, the annual report audit is the point of concentrated testing: for full-year 2025, inventory impairment provisions were 4.22 yi yuan, of which 2.08 yi yuan was in the first half and 2.14 yi yuan in the second half. Looking only at single-quarter fourth-quarter asset impairment losses, they were 1.19 yi yuan in 2025, 1.77 yi yuan in 2024, 1.94 yi yuan in 2023, 2.70 yi yuan in 2022, 1.52 yi yuan in 2021, and 1.03 yi yuan in 2020. In six years, a provision was recognized in the fourth quarter every year without exception, all in the magnitude of 1 to 3 yi yuan.

This year through the end of September, asset impairment losses were already 3.37 yi yuan, a bit more than 3.18 yi yuan in the same period last year, so the provisioning pace is not slow. The probability of another provision in the fourth quarter is very high. But as for how large that amount can be, judging by the pattern of the previous six years, it will most likely still be 1 to 3 yi yuan. Net profit in the first three quarters was 129.11 yi yuan, so 1 to 3 yi yuan accounts for less than 2.5%.

There is one more point to note: at the end of June, the impairment provision balance was 14.90 yi yuan, accounting for 4.81% of the inventory book balance, versus 6.76% in the same period last year and 6.58% at the end of last year, so the coverage ratio is declining. There is a structural reason for this: raw materials, which are rising fastest, themselves carry a low provisioning ratio of only 2.78%, while finished goods are at 6.39%; but thinner coverage, combined with finished goods rising 43.7%, is indeed a variable at the time of concentrated testing in the fourth quarter.

What really needs to be watched is not this write-down, but the high-priced inventory flowing into cost. The company itself put it plainly: "The conversion of low-priced raw materials into revenue did indeed help the gross margin in the first half to some extent, but the increase in storage prices began to narrow after the second quarter, and the company uses the moving average method for accounting, so costs rise every quarter, and the third-quarter gross margin still reached 49%." The third-quarter single-quarter gross margin was 49.05%, the second quarter 50.67%, the first quarter 49.09%, already drifting slightly downward. The current 333 yi yuan of inventory was bought in at post-price-increase prices and will be converted into operating costs over the coming quarters; whether the gross margin can hold at its current level depends on whether price increases keep pace, not on how much write-down provision is made.

Conversely, there is another scenario that would invalidate the above judgment: storage and electronic component prices turn downward in the fourth quarter while domestic demand does not pick up. At that point, high-priced inventory is being converted into cost on one side while net realizable value is declining on the other; the two collide, and only then would the write-down clearly exceed 1 to 3 yi yuan. In the fourth quarter of 2022, 2.70 yi yuan was provided, the largest amount in six years, and that year happened to coincide with a storage price-decline cycle; this comparison can be kept for use.

Sources: Hikvision "2026 Third Quarter Report" (October 17, 2026, announcement no. 2026-029); Hikvision "October 17, 2026 Investor Relations Activity Record" (October 17, 2026, Cninfo annoId 1225609986, announcement no. 2026-10-17); Hikvision "2026 Semi-Annual Report" (July 25, 2026, Cninfo annoId 1225440236, Note V, 9 Inventory); Hikvision "2025 Annual Report" (April 18, 2026, Cninfo annoId 1225123062, Note V, 9 Inventory and Note III, 16.2); Hikvision "2025 Semi-Annual Report" (August 2, 2025, Cninfo annoId 1224368773, Note V, 9 Inventory).