In SanDisk's quarterly report, how much did the NAND contract price change quarter-on-quarter? Will this change first show up in Dell's gross margin in the earnings report around November 26, or will it have to wait until the quarter in February next year?
- A-shares T&S Communications -14.63%, Eoptolink -14.19%, Victory Giant Technology -13.31%.
- Product gross margin 13.8% to 17.3%).
- December-quarter gross margin guidance is 84.5% to 85.5%
- Revenue 110.31 yi US dollars, up 23% quarter-on-quarter from 89.65 yi
- In FY27 about 50% of bit volume and in FY28 about two-thirds are already in agreements.
In SanDisk's quarterly report, how much did the NAND contract price change quarter-on-quarter? Will this change first show up in Dell's gross margin in the earnings report around November 26, or will it have to wait until the quarter in February next year?
闪迪季报里NAND合约价环比变动了多少？这个变动会先落在戴尔11月26日前后财报的毛利率上，还是要等到明年2月那一季？
The desk answersverifiedWalnut, from public filings
Conclusion first: SanDisk's price increase this quarter mainly bites into Dell's gross margin only in the February report next year; the one around November 26 bites only a little. Goods shipped at the new price in September were still sitting in Dell's raw material warehouse at the end of October and had not entered cost.
SanDisk's quarterly report does not have the figure "contract price quarter-on-quarter." What can be verified is four things. Revenue 110.31 yi US dollars, up 23% quarter-on-quarter from 89.65 yi; on the earnings call the CFO said about 60% of that 23% came from shipment volume and 40% from price, based on which the price contribution is about 9% (estimate, 23% times 40%). The 10-Q gives revenue per GB, and only year-on-year: data center up about 320%, edge up more than 450%, consumer up more than 110%, total shipments by EB up only about 10% — the 85% gross margin is not from selling more, it is from selling dearer. The contract structure determines that this price will not jump all at once: the pricing mechanism of long-term agreements consists of fixed and floating parts; in FY27 about 50% of bit volume and in FY28 about two-thirds are already in agreements. December-quarter gross margin guidance is 84.5% to 85.5%; the company said guidance for this quarter includes only moderate price increases for similar products, and the price increases are decelerating. The NAND contract prices reported by third-party institutions are not in the financial report; I did not find them, so I do not write them.
Dell's inventory on July 31 was 212.90 yi US dollars, and operating cost for the quarter was 371.41 yi, about 52 days (estimate); within inventory, raw materials were 158.94 yi and finished goods only 12.22 yi — what was stocked was materials, not complete machines. On January 30 inventory was only 104.37 yi and raw materials 66.96 yi; in the first-half cash flow statement the "inventory" line was negative 109.40 yi — using 109 yi US dollars of cash to stockpile materials. Goods shipped by SanDisk at the new price in September entered Dell's warehouse in September to October; Dell's third quarter closed at the end of October, and on that day this batch of materials was still recorded in raw materials — inventory, not cost; 52 days of turnover means materials bought today enter cost on average only after seven weeks. Therefore a full quarter of the new price falls in November to January, that is, the February report next year.
The 10-Q has another sentence supporting this rhythm: in strategic supply agreements, the portion whose price is agreed by both parties only after the reporting date is not included in purchase obligations — there is a block of volume that has not yet been priced, and the pricing date is in later quarters. Remaining FY27 purchase obligations are 224 yi US dollars. In the September 1 earnings release the company said it held 950 yi US dollars of AI server order backlog; the selling price was quoted earlier, the materials are rising now, the price is locked but the cost is not, and the gap can only show up in the quarters of delivery.
I cannot give the magnitude. Dell's filings do not have the line "how much of product cost is NAND"; giving a percentage would be making it up. Direction certain, magnitude unknown.
Precedent: in the February-to-April quarter (disclosed May 28), ISG operating margin fell from 14.8% to 10.5%, and returned to 15.0% the next quarter; in the same period product gross margin rose from 13.8% to 17.3% (my calculation), showing that old-price inventory became a tailwind in that quarter. The same action reverses in the second half of the year: old-price materials are used up, and new-price materials enter cost. On September 1 the company raised full-year earnings per share guidance to 25.50 US dollars; the full year runs to the end of January next year and includes the November-to-January quarter.
The strongest opposing point: in the past two quarters, when memory price increases were fiercest, Dell's gross margin was instead rising (20.9% versus 18.3% a year earlier; product gross margin 13.8% to 17.3%). If costs can be passed through one-to-one, then "which quarter's gross margin it falls in" is the wrong question — the pressure falls on selling price, not on gross margin. More sharply, the direction may be opposite: Dell increased raw materials from 67 yi to 159 yi, equivalent to locking next year's first-half costs at this year's prices; SanDisk itself said the next quarter is only moderate price increases, and once 2027 contract prices turn down, what Dell faces in February next year is inventory write-down, not a cost shock.
What would count as me being wrong: in the report around November 26, if gross margin falls from 20.9% to below 19% and at the same time inventory days fall from 52 days to below 45 days, that would show new-price materials went directly into current-period cost and the price increase landed early in the November quarter. If Dell explicitly says current-quarter cost already includes this round of memory price increases, that also counts as me being wrong. If SanDisk's December-quarter guidance raises the price contribution from 40% to more than 60%, the step-up is larger than I calculated, and that likewise counts as me being wrong.
Looking at the tape again, do not treat this chain as the only explanation for that day: on the day SanDisk fell 13.47%, Micron -5.3%, Western Digital -7.4%, Seagate -8.0%, Dell -10.8%, Applied Optoelectronics -12.8%, Coherent -11.3%, Lumentum -8.6%, Ciena -8.2%, Intel -28.6%, AMD -10.9%, Qualcomm -11.1%, Marvell -10.1%; A-shares T&S Communications -14.63%, Eoptolink -14.19%, Victory Giant Technology -13.31%. The entire AI hardware chain was being repriced together; how much of Dell's 10.77% was the market calculating SanDisk's account cannot be distinguished from the tape.
Source: Sandisk 8-K 2026-10-29 Exhibit 99.1 sndkq1-27ex991xpressrelease.htm (0001628280-26-068243); Sandisk 10-Q sndk-20261002.htm 2026-10-30 (0001628280-26-068601); Sandisk Fiscal Year 2027 First Quarter Earnings Call Transcript 2026-10-30 (Motley Fool); Dell 8-K 2026-09-01 Exhibit 99.1 exhibit991earnings8kq2fy27.htm (0001571996-26-000039); Dell 10-Q dell-20260731.htm 2026-09-08 (0001571996-26-000046); Dell 8-K 2026-05-28 Exhibit 99.1 exhibit991earnings8kq1fy27.htm (0001571996-26-000021); Dell 8-K 2026-02-26 Exhibit 99.1 exhibit991earnings8kq4fy26.htm (0001571996-26-000003).
先给结论：闪迪这季的涨价，主要等到明年2月那份财报才咬到戴尔的毛利率，11月26日前后那份只咬到一小口。9月按新价出的货，10月底还躺在戴尔的原材料仓库里，没进成本。
闪迪季报里没有"合约价环比"这个数。能核到的是四样。收入110.31亿美元，环比89.65亿增23%；业绩说明会上CFO说这23%里约60%来自出货量、40%来自价格，据此价格贡献约9%（估算，23%乘40%）。10-Q给的是每GB收入，且只给同比：数据中心涨约320%，边缘涨超450%，消费涨超110%，总出货量按EB计只增约10%——85%的毛利率不是卖得多，是卖得贵。合约结构决定这个价不会一次跳完：长期协议的定价机制由固定和浮动两部分组成，FY27约50%的比特量、FY28约三分之二已在协议里。12月季毛利率指引84.5%到85.5%，公司说这一季的指引只含温和的同类产品涨价，涨价在减速。第三方机构报的NAND合约价，财报里没有，我没查到，不写。
戴尔7月31日存货212.90亿美元，当季营业成本371.41亿，约52天（估算）；存货里原材料158.94亿、成品只有12.22亿，备的是料不是整机。1月30日存货才104.37亿、原材料66.96亿，上半年现金流量表"存货"一项负109.40亿——拿109亿美元现金囤料。9月闪迪按新价出的货，进戴尔仓是9到10月，戴尔第三季10月底结账，那天这批料还挂在原材料里，是存货不是成本；52天周转意味着今天买的料平均七周后才进成本。所以完整一季的新价，落在11月到1月，也就是明年2月那份财报。
10-Q还有一句支持这节奏：战略供应协议里，价格在报表日之后才由双方商定的那部分，不计入采购义务——有一块量到现在还没定价，定价日在往后几季。剩余FY27采购义务224亿美元。9月1日业绩稿里公司说手上握着950亿美元AI服务器订单储备，卖价是早前报的，料是现在涨的，价锁了成本没锁，缺口只能在交付的那几季显形。
幅度我给不了。戴尔文件里没有"NAND占产品成本多少"这一行，给百分比就是编。方向确定、幅度未知。
先例：2到4月那季（5月28日披露）ISG经营利润率从14.8%掉到10.5%，下一季回到15.0%；同期产品毛利率13.8%抬到17.3%（我算的），说明旧价库存在那季变成顺风。同一个动作下半年会反过来：旧价料吃完，新价料进成本。9月1日公司把全年每股收益指引上调到25.50美元，全年到明年1月底，含11月到1月这季。
反方最强的一条：过去两季存储涨价最凶时，戴尔毛利率反而在升（20.9%对去年同期18.3%，产品毛利率13.8%到17.3%）。如果成本能一比一转嫁，"落在哪一季的毛利率"就问错了——压力落在售价上，不落在毛利率上。更狠的是方向可能相反：戴尔把原材料从67亿备到159亿，等于把明年上半年的成本锁在了今年的价格上；闪迪自己说下一季只是温和涨价，一旦2027年合约价转跌，明年2月戴尔要面对的是存货跌价，不是成本冲击。
什么情况算我看错：11月26日前后那份财报，毛利率从20.9%掉到19%以下、同时存货天数从52天掉到45天以下，说明新价料直接进了当期成本，涨价提前落在11月这季。戴尔明说当季成本已含这轮存储涨价，也算我看错。闪迪12月季指引把价格贡献从40%抬到60%以上，台阶比我算的大，同样算我看错。
再看盘面，别把这个链条当成那天唯一的解释：闪迪跌13.47%那天，美光-5.3%、西部数据-7.4%、希捷-8.0%，戴尔-10.8%、应用光电-12.8%、Coherent -11.3%、Lumentum -8.6%、Ciena -8.2%，英特尔-28.6%、超威半导体-10.9%、高通-11.1%、迈威尔-10.1%；A股太辰光-14.63%、新易盛-14.19%、胜宏科技-13.31%。整条AI硬件在被一起重估，戴尔那10.77%里有多少是在算闪迪的账，盘面上分不出来。
- 01Sandisk 8-K 2026-10-29 附件99.1 sndkq1-27ex991xpressrelease.htm（0001628280-26-068243）
- 02Sandisk 10-Q sndk-20261002.htm 2026-10-30（0001628280-26-068601）
- 03Sandisk 2027财年一季度电话会记录 2026-10-30（Motley Fool）
- 04Dell 8-K 2026-09-01 附件99.1 exhibit991earnings8kq2fy27.htm（0001571996-26-000039）
- 05Dell 10-Q dell-20260731.htm 2026-09-08（0001571996-26-000046）
- 06Dell 8-K 2026-05-28 附件99.1 exhibit991earnings8kq1fy27.htm（0001571996-26-000021）
- 07Dell 8-K 2026-02-26 附件99.1 exhibit991earnings8kq4fy26.htm（0001571996-26-000003）