分析一下全钒液流电池生产企业的2026动态
- 钒产品分部收入19.99亿元、增3.64%，成本17.28亿元、降5.62%，毛利率13.56%、提高8.48个百分点，毛利额2.71亿元（19.99减17.28）
- 上半年国内钒制品产量8.84万吨（以五氧化二钒计）、同比增9.9%，钒钛股份产2.63万吨、增0.98%，占国内29.8%（2.63÷8.84）
- 一季度营收24.76亿元、毛利2.59亿元（24.76减营业成本22.17）、毛利率10.46%
- 拆到单季，一季度归母3.80亿元，二季度5.90亿元（9.70减3.80），二季度比一季度多赚2.10亿元
- 二季度钒价在跌，毛利率反而升，因为钛白粉在涨：上半年钛白粉均价较2025年全年涨8.9%，钛白粉毛利率6.17%、提高4.17个百分点
分析一下全钒液流电池生产企业的2026动态
The desk answers已核实Walnut, from public filings
2026年全钒液流电池这门生意，卡的不是产能，是订单：上半年全国装机规模只有91MW/364MWh，电解液扩产的脚步明显放慢，能拿公开数据说话的生产企业只剩上海电气；上游的钒在往一家没上市的龙头手里集中——钒钛股份2026年给大连融科的储能用钒原料框架协议，预计供应量20,000吨。
需求的真实温度写在半年报里。91MW/364MWh是钒钛股份2026年半年报第13页引用液流电池产业联盟的数据，364除以91正好4.0小时，是全钒液流最典型的4小时时长。同一份报告第10页的原话是“全钒液流电池储能项目装机不及预期导致厂家采购原料减量”。2025年报里的措辞还是“2025年全钒液流储能项目装机量持续上升”，一年之间，从“持续上升”变成“不及预期”。
政策方向是反的，但落地太晚。2026年1月27日国家发改委、国家能源局发布《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》（发改价格〔2026〕114号），第一次在国家层面明确“电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制”（2025年报第13页）；2026年6月《新型能源体系建设“十五五”规划》把2030年新型储能装机目标定在3亿千瓦（2026年9月11日投资者关系活动记录表）。这两份文件定的是2027年以后项目的收益模型，救不了2026上半年的装机。短期变量在云南，公司在半年报和10月13日调研里都提到“以云南省为代表的全钒液流电池储能项目集中建设和并网”，但没给规模数字。
制造端只剩一家能拿数据说话。上海电气2026年上半年营业总收入633.32亿元、同比增16.6%，归母净利润9.70亿元、增18.2%，新增订单1,003.9亿元，其中储能设备114.4亿元——这个口径把锂电和液流装在一起，公司没有单列液流。液流只有定性描述：以系列电堆、电解液及系统模块化设计制造能力，“已承接多个百兆瓦级储能项目，出货量稳居液流电池第一梯队，并实现向欧洲等发达经济体的批量化交付”（半年报第13页）。它所在的能源装备板块上半年收入365.58亿元、增21.4%，公司归因于“风电及储能业务销售收入较上年同期有所上升”，板块毛利率18.7%。拆到单季，一季度归母3.80亿元，二季度5.90亿元（9.70减3.80），二季度比一季度多赚2.10亿元。
材料端在往后退，这是2026年最容易被忽略的变化。钒钛股份与大连融科的合资电解液产线只有2,000立方米/年（2026年9月11日投资者关系记录）。投资者9月两次追问6万吨、6万立方米的钒电解液项目何时开工，公司两次用同一句话回复“积极稳妥推进项目建设”，没给开工和投产时间。更实的一刀在募集资金报告里：2026年3月27日董事会、4月24日股东会通过变更部分募资用途，“钒电池电解液产业化制备及应用研发项目”承诺投入5,500万元，累计只投了594.37万元、进度10.8%，剩余5,100.08万元改投“氧化钒球磨焙烧系统节能减排升级改造项目”，理由原文是“随着原项目的外部市场环境等因素发生变化……认为前述项目已不适宜按原方案继续实施”。这是5,500万元的研发项目，不等于6万立方米产业化项目停工，但它说明公司自己把电解液的时间表往后推了。河钢股份的表述更靠前也更轻：上半年只写“加速研发能源级高纯氧化钒、钒电池电解液”，产能、产量、收入一个数字都没有，还在研发阶段（河钢半年报第9页）。
上游的数字反而好看，但来源不是液流。上半年国内钒制品产量8.84万吨（以五氧化二钒计）、同比增9.9%，钒钛股份产2.63万吨、增0.98%，占国内29.8%（2.63÷8.84）。需求总量同比基本持平：钢铁领域用钒增约10%（钒钛产业联盟），被粗钢产量降3%、螺纹钢产量降10.7%抵掉，液流这边是减量采购。价格上，上半年钒产品均价较2025年全年均价涨6.9%，但二季度已经回落，2025年全年均价是跌7.2%的。钒产品分部收入19.99亿元、增3.64%，成本17.28亿元、降5.62%，毛利率13.56%、提高8.48个百分点，毛利额2.71亿元（19.99减17.28）。这个改善来自涨价和降本，不是液流放量。供给端还有一条中期变量：2026年6月15日新版《矿产资源法实施条例》施行，钒列入36种国家级战略性矿产，新增产能受硬约束（半年报第10页）。
单季拆开看，会得到和“钒价二季度回落”相反的结论。一季度营收24.76亿元、毛利2.59亿元（24.76减营业成本22.17）、毛利率10.46%；二季度营收25.20亿元、毛利3.09亿元（上半年5.68减一季度2.59）、毛利率12.26%。二季度钒价在跌，毛利率反而升，因为钛白粉在涨：上半年钛白粉均价较2025年全年涨8.9%，钛白粉毛利率6.17%、提高4.17个百分点。所以二季度归母1.50亿元，是一季度0.72亿元的两倍。只盯钒价，会把这家公司二季度的变化看反。
把链子摆完，紧松很清楚。最松的是原料和电解液：钒产量增9.9%、需求持平，钒钛还在和艾斯能源（攀枝花）这类新电解液厂谈购销，钒钛自己的电解液研发项目连钱都改了用途。最紧的是项目和交付资格：上海电气讲的全是“百兆瓦级项目”“第一梯队”“欧洲批量交付”，没有一句讲产能；大连融科没上市，2026年却能锁定2万吨钒原料，2026年9月11日业绩说明会上被问上市进展，钒钛只回“建议关注大连融科发布的相关信息”。议价权在业主的招标手里，制造端产能富余，2026年这条链的利润不在“钒”上，在“谁交过货”上。
反方最强的一击是节奏论：上半年装机少是并网节奏，不是需求消失。114号文1月才发，省级细则要时间；云南项目集中建设，并网落在下半年和2027年；5,500万元的研发项目改用途，推不出6万立方米产业化项目停摆；大连融科2万吨采购恰恰是龙头在备货。这个反驳站得住一半——需求可能只是延后，不是没有。
证伪条件摆在这：2027年3月的2026年报里，钒钛股份对2026年液流装机的措辞如果仍是“不及预期”，我的判断成立，如果改成“快速增长”之类，我错；6万立方米项目只要在2026年内公告开工或投产，“上游先撤”就判错；上海电气2026年报若单列液流收入或订单、且增速高于储能整体，“订单集中”成立；钒价若四季度回到一季度高点，“供给过剩”判错。
来源：攀钢集团钒钛资源股份有限公司《2026年半年度报告》（2026-08-24，巨潮1225492552）；《2026年第一季度报告》（2026-04-25，公告编号2026-24）；《2025年年度报告》（2026-03-31，巨潮资讯网文稿号AN202603301820875080）；《关于募集资金2026年半年度存放与使用情况的报告》（2026-08-24，巨潮1225492556）；《投资者关系管理信息》编号20260911（2026-09-11，巨潮1225560413）、编号20260917（2026-09-17，巨潮1225570603）、编号20261013（2026-10-13，巨潮1225603580）；上海电气集团股份有限公司《2026年半年度报告》（2026-08-31，巨潮1225535023）、《2026年第一季度报告》（2026-04-30）；河钢股份有限公司《2026年半年度报告》（2026-08-26，巨潮1225504383）。
Analyze the 2026 dynamics of all-vanadium redox flow battery manufacturers
In the all-vanadium redox flow battery business in 2026, what is stuck is not production capacity but orders: in the first half of the year, nationwide installed capacity was only 91MW/364MWh, the pace of electrolyte capacity expansion clearly slowed, and the only manufacturer that can be discussed with public data is Shanghai Electric; upstream vanadium is concentrating into the hands of an unlisted leader — the framework agreement under which Vanadium & Titanium Co., Ltd. will supply Dalian Rongke with vanadium raw materials for energy storage in 2026 has an expected supply volume of 20,000 tons.
The true temperature of demand is written in the interim report. 91MW/364MWh is data from the Flow Battery Industry Alliance cited on page 13 of Vanadium & Titanium Co., Ltd.'s 2026 interim report; 364 divided by 91 is exactly 4.0 hours, the most typical 4-hour duration for all-vanadium flow. The exact wording on page 10 of the same report is "installed capacity of all-vanadium redox flow battery energy storage projects fell short of expectations, causing manufacturers to reduce purchases of raw materials." The wording in the 2025 annual report was still "installed capacity of all-vanadium redox flow energy storage projects continued to rise in 2025"; within one year, it went from "continued to rise" to "fell short of expectations."
The policy direction is the opposite, but implementation is too late. On January 27, 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued the "Notice on Improving the Generation-Side Capacity Price Mechanism" (Fagai Jiage [2026] No. 114), which for the first time at the national level clarified the "grid-side independent new-type energy storage capacity price mechanism" (2025 annual report, page 13); in June 2026, the "15th Five-Year Plan for Building a New Energy System" set the 2030 new-type energy storage installed capacity target at 300 million kilowatts (September 11, 2026 investor relations activity record). These two documents define the revenue model for projects after 2027 and cannot rescue installed capacity in the first half of 2026. The short-term variable is in Yunnan; the company mentioned in both the interim report and the October 13 research visit "the concentrated construction and grid connection of all-vanadium redox flow battery energy storage projects represented by Yunnan Province," but gave no scale figures.
On the manufacturing side, only one company can speak with data. Shanghai Electric's total operating revenue in the first half of 2026 was 63.332 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 970 million yuan, up 18.2%; new orders were 100.39 billion yuan, of which energy storage equipment was 11.44 billion yuan — this scope combines lithium batteries and flow batteries, and the company does not break out flow batteries separately. For flow batteries there is only a qualitative description: with the capacity for series stack, electrolyte, and system modular design and manufacturing, it "has undertaken multiple hundred-megawatt-level energy storage projects, ranks firmly in the first tier of flow battery shipments, and has achieved batch delivery to developed economies such as Europe" (interim report, page 13). The energy equipment segment in which it sits had revenue of 36.558 billion yuan in the first half, up 21.4%, which the company attributed to "sales revenue from wind power and energy storage businesses rising compared with the same period last year"; the segment's gross margin was 18.7%. Broken down by quarter, net profit attributable to shareholders was 380 million yuan in the first quarter and 590 million yuan in the second quarter (9.70 minus 3.80), with the second quarter earning 210 million yuan more than the first quarter.
The materials side is retreating, and this is the most easily overlooked change in 2026. The joint venture electrolyte production line of Vanadium & Titanium Co., Ltd. and Dalian Rongke is only 2,000 cubic meters/year (September 11, 2026 investor relations record). Investors asked twice in September when the 60,000-ton, 60,000-cubic-meter vanadium electrolyte project would start construction, and the company replied twice with the same sentence, "actively and prudently advancing project construction," without giving construction start or commissioning dates. A more concrete cut is in the raised funds report: on March 27, 2026, the board of directors, and on April 24, the shareholders' meeting, approved a change in the use of part of the raised funds; the "vanadium battery electrolyte industrial preparation and application R&D project" had a committed investment of 55 million yuan, but only 5.9437 million yuan had been invested cumulatively, a progress of 10.8%, and the remaining 51.0008 million yuan was redirected to the "vanadium oxide ball milling and roasting system energy-saving and emission-reduction upgrade and renovation project"; the original reason stated was "as the external market environment and other factors of the original project changed... we believe the aforementioned project is no longer suitable to continue implementation under the original plan." This is a 55 million yuan R&D project, not the same as suspension of the 60,000-cubic-meter industrialization project, but it shows the company itself has pushed back the electrolyte timetable. Hegang Co., Ltd.'s wording is earlier-stage and lighter: in the first half it only wrote "accelerating R&D of energy-grade high-purity vanadium oxide and vanadium battery electrolyte," with not a single figure for capacity, output, or revenue, and it is still in the R&D stage (Hegang interim report, page 9).
The upstream numbers actually look good, but the source is not flow batteries. In the first half, domestic vanadium product output was 8.84 wan tonnes (measured as vanadium pentoxide), up 9.9% year-on-year; Vanadium & Titanium produced 2.63 wan tonnes, up 0.98%, accounting for 29.8% of domestic output (2.63 ÷ 8.84). Total demand was basically flat year-on-year: vanadium use in the steel sector rose about 10% (Vanadium Titanium Industry Alliance), offset by a 3% drop in crude steel output and a 10.7% drop in rebar output; on the flow battery side, procurement was reduced. On price, the average price of vanadium products in the first half rose 6.9% versus the 2025 full-year average, but had already fallen back in the second quarter; the 2025 full-year average was down 7.2%. The vanadium products segment revenue was 19.99 yi yuan, up 3.64%, cost was 17.28 yi yuan, down 5.62%, gross margin was 13.56%, up 8.48 percentage points, and gross profit was 2.71 yi yuan (19.99 minus 17.28). This improvement came from higher prices and lower costs, not from flow battery volume growth. On the supply side there is another medium-term variable: on June 15, 2026, the new version of the Regulations for the Implementation of the Mineral Resources Law takes effect, vanadium is listed among 36 national strategic minerals, and new capacity is subject to hard constraints (interim report page 10).
Breaking it down by quarter gives the opposite conclusion to "vanadium prices fell in the second quarter." First-quarter revenue was 24.76 yi yuan, gross profit 2.59 yi yuan (24.76 minus operating cost 22.17), gross margin 10.46%; second-quarter revenue was 25.20 yi yuan, gross profit 3.09 yi yuan (first-half 5.68 minus first-quarter 2.59), gross margin 12.26%. Vanadium prices were falling in the second quarter, yet gross margin rose, because titanium dioxide was rising: the first-half average price of titanium dioxide rose 8.9% versus the 2025 full-year average, and the titanium dioxide gross margin was 6.17%, up 4.17 percentage points. So second-quarter net profit attributable to the parent was 1.50 yi yuan, double the first quarter's 0.72 yi yuan. Looking only at vanadium prices would make you read this company's second-quarter change backwards.
Laying out the whole chain, the tight and loose points are clear. The loosest are raw materials and electrolyte: vanadium output up 9.9%, demand flat, Vanadium & Titanium is still negotiating purchases and sales with new electrolyte plants such as Ace Energy (Panzhihua), and Vanadium & Titanium even changed the use of the funds for its own electrolyte R&D project. The tightest are projects and delivery qualification: Shanghai Electric talks only about "hundred-megawatt-class projects," "first tier," and "batch deliveries in Europe," not a word about capacity; Dalian Rongke is not listed, yet in 2026 it can lock up 2 wan tonnes of vanadium raw material; at the September 11, 2026 results briefing, when asked about listing progress, Vanadium & Titanium only replied "we suggest you follow information released by Dalian Rongke." Bargaining power lies in the owner's tender, manufacturing capacity is in surplus, and in 2026 the profit in this chain is not in "vanadium" but in "who has delivered."
The strongest counterargument is the timing argument: low first-half installations are grid-connection timing, not vanished demand. Document No. 114 was only issued in January, and provincial rules take time; the Yunnan projects are under concentrated construction, with grid connection falling in the second half and in 2027; the change in use of the 5,500 wan yuan R&D project does not prove the 6 wan cubic meter industrialization project has stalled; Dalian Rongke's 2 wan tonne purchase is precisely the leader stocking up. This rebuttal holds up halfway—demand may merely be delayed, not absent.
The falsification conditions are these: in the 2026 annual report in March 2027, if Vanadium & Titanium's wording on 2026 flow battery installations is still "below expectations," my judgment holds; if it changes to something like "rapid growth," I am wrong; if the 6 wan cubic meter project is announced as started or put into production at any point within 2026, "upstream retreats first" is judged wrong; if Shanghai Electric's 2026 annual report separately discloses flow battery revenue or orders and the growth rate is higher than for energy storage overall, "order concentration" holds; if vanadium prices return to the first-quarter high in the fourth quarter, "overcapacity" is judged wrong.
Sources: Pangang Group Vanadium Titanium Resources Co., Ltd. 2026 Interim Report (2026-08-24, Cninfo 1225492552); 2026 First Quarter Report (2026-04-25, announcement no. 2026-24); 2025 Annual Report (2026-03-31, Cninfo document no. AN202603301820875080); Report on the 2026 Interim Deposit and Use of Raised Funds (2026-08-24, Cninfo 1225492556); Investor Relations Management Information no. 20260911 (2026-09-11, Cninfo 1225560413), no. 20260917 (2026-09-17, Cninfo 1225570603), no. 20261013 (2026-10-13, Cninfo 1225603580); Shanghai Electric Group Co., Ltd. 2026 Interim Report (2026-08-31, Cninfo 1225535023), 2026 First Quarter Report (2026-04-30); Hegang Co., Ltd. 2026 Interim Report (2026-08-26, Cninfo 1225504383).
税怎么落表必须抠：消费税是价内税、在电池生产环节缴，进"税金及附加"不进营业成本，所以2027年别盯毛利率，盯"税金及附加÷营业收入"。现在这个比率：上海电气3.45亿÷630.31亿=0.547%，钒钛股份0.35亿÷49.96亿=0.698%；对纯液流企业，2%单项就把这条比率抬到2%以上，是上海电气现在的3.7倍。2026年只覆盖9到12月，四季度报表看不出来；按前八个月2%、后四个月4%加权，2027年平均税率2.67%。还有一处没写死：电解液和系统集成算不算"电池生产"，公告没界定，这是落地第一个要吵的地方。供给却在放量：10月20日攀枝花艾斯能源6万立方米电解液厂竣工，折储能约1GWh，是上半年全国装机的2.75倍。
制造端在收口。上海电气把与国轩高科合资的电气国轩47.4%股权挂牌转让，挂牌价1元、成交价1元，9月中旬完成（临2026-044）；10月8日又筹划定增，只说"满足未来业务发展的资金需求"，募投项目一个字没披露。能挣钱的是交付资格和系统集成，不是把电池造出来。电解液这边三家上市上游的口径：钒钛"积极稳妥推进项目建设"、河钢"加速研发"、方大特钢报告书里"后续可能规划向五氧化二钒及钒电解液方向延伸"，没有一家给开工或投产日期；同一规格的6万立方米，却被一家不在上市公司名单里的公司先建成，还称"相关产品已获得国际主流电堆厂商认证"。电解液的问题从有没有变成卖给谁。
膜更能说明议价权。科润新材问询回复：液流膜售价持续新低、产能利用率47%仍在募资扩产、大连融科2024年起大幅转单东岳未来、上海电气2025年信用期约加3个月、应收账款占营收从31.99%升到67.45%。价格跌、产能扩、货款被押着——"卡在膜上"是直觉错误。把紧松摆完：最松是电解液和膜，最紧是"并网+容量电价"两个行政时点，湖北10月25日的"十五五"规划才刚把全钒和铁基液流写进省级盘子，还要建襄阳、宜昌两个液流基地。受益的是有并网交付记录、又踩在已出细则省份的集成商，和手里有钒渣的钢厂；受损的是2026年才把产能建起来的新进入者。
资源端在真金白银加码，但加的是提钒。方大特钢10月17日报告书草案，以基金退伙实物分配加2,600万元现金取得江西方大钢铁集团企业投资有限公司100%股权，评估值36.91亿元、增值4.44%，旗下云南、四川两家方大钒钛，提钒收得率85%、钒渣品位15%以上；2026上半年五氧化二钒产量0.88万吨、2025年全年1.66万吨，年化高约6%。液流在报告书里只有一句"后续可能规划"。资本端相反：龙佰9月22日董事会通过清算注销河南振兴钒钛低碳基金，出资额9.98亿元、实缴2.16亿元，公告写"没有存续的投资项目"，公告给的理由是"减少管理层级，优化公司组织管理体系，提高经营效率"。四年零项目，财务资本在攀西找不到可投的标的。
还要打断"钒电池概念"：同花顺这只概念挂着38只股票，从惠城环保到海德股份都有。把名单里两家的三季报对比一下：安宁股份三季度归母1.34亿元、同比降30.30%，生意是钒钛磁铁矿；钛能化学（原中核钛白）1.54亿元、同比增167.89%，生意是钛白粉。同一张名单，一个跌三成、一个涨1.7倍，跟液流没关系。而且到10月26日，名单里真正沾液流的公司三季报一张没出——钒钛最新公告停在10月21日的职工董事选举，上海电气停在10月15日的诉讼进展，河钢停在10月14日的债券兑付。
反方最强三条：液流寿命20年以上，2%一次性进初始投资、摊到二十年，度电成本影响不到一分钱，跟六到八年换电芯的锂电比不公平；装机少是并网节奏，114号文1月才发、省级细则要时间，云南项目集中建设，需求是延后；产业资本在进——方大36.91亿元装钒钛、融科和镔鑫钢铁10月9日在连云港签产业链一体化。我认一半：2%改的是招标那一刻的初始投资，而2026年掏钱的业主恰恰对初始投资敏感、容量电价还没落，边际影响被放大；更要紧是明年9月的4%，它给了业主一个等的理由。延后成立，但延后期间产能没停，延后加扩产就是价格战。产业资本买的是提钒，不是电堆。
证伪四条：2026年报钒钛对液流装机的措辞仍是"不及预期"则成立，改成"快速增长"我错；钒钛6万立方米2026年内公告开工或投产，"上游在退"判错；艾斯一年内拿不到实际供货合同、只有认证，"产能先于需求落地"要打折；上海电气年报若单列液流收入且增速高于储能整体，"订单集中在交付资格"成立，仍合并披露则无法验证。一句话收：重心已从谁能造挪到谁能并网、谁替业主交这笔税，2027年盯的是省级容量电价细则落地时间、项目并网时序、和"税金及附加÷营业收入"这个比率。
来源：钒钛股份《2026年半年度报告》（2026-08-24，巨潮1225492552）、《投资者关系管理信息》20260911（1225560413）、20260917（1225570603）、20261013（1225603580）；上海电气《2026年半年度报告》（2026-08-31，巨潮1225535023）、《关于挂牌转让子公司股权的进展公告》（临2026-044，2026-09-16，1225564763）、《关于筹划向特定对象发行A股股票的提示性公告》（临2026-046，2026-10-09，1225597379）；方大特钢《重大资产购买暨关联交易报告书（草案）》（2026-10-17，巨潮1225609929）；龙佰集团《关于清算注销河南振兴钒钛低碳发展私募股权投资基金中心（有限合伙）的公告》（2026-066，2026-09-23，巨潮1225576943）；安宁股份《2026年三季度报告》（2026-10-24，巨潮1225619311）；钛能化学《2026年三季度报告》（2026-10-21，巨潮1225611785）；河钢股份《2026年半年度报告》（2026-08-26，巨潮1225504383）；财政部、海关总署、税务总局《关于调整部分电池消费税政策的公告》（2026年第20号，2026年7月；税率、时点与免税清单经证券时报与第一财经2026-10-21、财联社2026-10-15、时代财经2026-10-22转述）；艾斯能源6万立方米钒电解液厂竣工（证券日报、上海证券报2026-10-20）；皖能数据中心7MW/42MWh项目开工（人民财讯2026-10-23）；前三季度新增投运新型储能35.30GW/102.31GWh（证券时报网2026-10-26）；科润新材科创板问询回复（深圳商报2026-09-09、界面新闻2026-07-14转述）；湖北省新型能源体系建设"十五五"规划（大河财立方2026-10-25）；连云港全钒液流产业链一体化项目签约（每日经济新闻2026-10-12）；同花顺钒电池概念（886003）成分股与巨潮资讯网公告列表（查询日2026-10-26）。