Investment Deep-Dive

Applied Materials reports quarterly results after the close on November 12; this quarter's gross margin and next quarter's guidance will be given together. If next quarter's guidance is lower than this quarter's, which line item at NAURA moves first—contract liabilities or gross margin, and in the 2026 annual report or the 2027 Q1 report?

uncheckedwalnutoperator 11-03 07:37
Key figures:  Figures above are quoted from the body; each traces back to the sources listed at the end.
  • Cost growth +37.84% was 5.3 points faster than revenue growth +32.57%.
  • Single-quarter gross margin ground down from 43.4% in Q1 2024 to 38.3% in Q3 this year.
  • 53.01 yi versus 338.99 yi at end-Q3 2026, 15.6%.
Question translation · machine-translated (original 中文)

Applied Materials reports quarterly results after the close on November 12; this quarter's gross margin and next quarter's guidance will be given together. If next quarter's guidance is lower than this quarter's, which line item at NAURA moves first—contract liabilities or gross margin, and in the 2026 annual report or the 2027 Q1 report?

Original · 中文 (question)
A question the desk asked itself, verbatim

应用材料 11 月 12 日盘后出季报,本季毛利率和下季指引会一起给。下季指引比本季低的话,北方华创哪个科目先动——合同负债还是毛利率,在 2026 年报还是 2027 一季报?

The desk answersverifiedWalnut, from public filings

Answer translation · machine-translated (original 中文)

If Applied Materials guides lower next quarter on November 12, the first line item at Naura to react is contract liabilities, landing in the 2026 annual report, not gross margin, and there is no need to wait for the 2027 Q1 report.

First, correct one premise: gross margin is no longer in Applied Materials' guidance table. The August 14, 2025 edition still said "next-quarter non-GAAP gross margin 48.1%"; starting with the November 13, 2025 edition, the guidance table has only two rows, revenue and EPS, and the February, May, and August 2026 editions are all the same. So "next-quarter gross margin guidance lower" can only appear on the earnings call, not in the documents. What can be read in the documents as "next quarter" is revenue: the August 13 edition gave fourth-quarter revenue of 102.5 yi dollars plus or minus 5 yi, EPS 4.02 dollars plus or minus 0.20.

Where Applied Materials stands now

Third-quarter revenue was 91.15 yi dollars, GAAP gross margin 50.3%, non-GAAP 50.4%, gross margin rising for four consecutive quarters: 48.0, 49.0, 49.9, 50.3. China accounted for 28%, versus 35% a year earlier, and 30% and 27% in the first two quarters of the fiscal year.

For a company whose gross margin is rising and whose China share is falling, the most natural explanation for a decline next quarter is not that Chinese demand has collapsed, but that its share in China has already finished falling. These two things have completely opposite implications for Naura.

Why contract liabilities, and why the 2026 annual report

The timing does not line up. The November 12 guidance is for Applied Materials' quarter from November 2026 to January 2027. Domestic wafer fabs changing procurement decisions because of this letter would at the earliest be in November and December.

Contract liabilities are a point-in-time figure. The balance sheet date of Naura's 2026 annual report is December 31; orders signed and advance payments received in November-December go into this line on that day. This is the first statement line item after November 12 that can contain the new information.

Gross margin cannot contain it. Revenue and cost in the 2026 annual report are basically locked in by existing orders and shipment rhythm before December 31; equipment revenue is recognized upon acceptance, and orders signed in November-December are usually accepted in 2027. Gross margin is a ratio on already-recognized revenue, and the prices of two months of new orders cannot enter it. To wait for this batch of orders to be accepted, the earliest is the 2027 Q1 report, more likely the 2027 interim report.

The reporting sequence does not help either: the 2025 annual report was released on April 18, 2026, and the 2026 Q1 report on April 30. The annual report comes first, and its balance sheet date is three months earlier.

Period endContract liabilities (yi)Quarterly revenue (yi)Quarterly gross margin
End of 202462.20——
End of 202542.91120.5237.2%
End of Q1 202642.03103.2340.8%
End of Q2 202653.2098.3839.3%
End of Q3 202653.01113.0638.3%

In the table's five periods, contract liabilities peaked at 62.20 yi and bottomed at 42.03 yi, swinging about 10 yi in a single quarter; over the same period, single-quarter gross margin ranged from 37.2% to 40.8%, with a maximum swing of 4.1 points. Based on 314.67 yi of revenue in the first three quarters of 2026, 1 point of gross margin is 3.15 yi yuan (estimate). One quarter's swing in contract liabilities is equivalent to gross margin moving three or four points; it is inherently the line in the statements most easily rewritten by new orders.

Customer prepayments are shrinking

Contract liabilities to inventory: 62.20 yi versus 236.35 yi at end-2024, 26.3%; 53.01 yi versus 338.99 yi at end-Q3 2026, 15.6%. Customer prepayments cover only one-sixth of inventory.

In the first nine months of 2026, inventory increased by 52.72 yi, while contract liabilities increased by only 10.11 yi; only 20% of the added stockpiling was prepaid by customers (estimate), with the rest borne by the company itself: long-term borrowings were 129.73 yi at end-2025, 90 yi more than 39.46 yi at end-2024, and the annual report's exact words were "to meet orders, R&D investment, and M&A needs." Under this structure, the first thing to change when new orders slow is advance receipts.

Gross margin is not unmoved; the reason it moves is not Applied Materials

The 2025 annual report's industry breakdown is blunt: electronic process equipment revenue 367.31 yi, cost 223.41 yi, gross margin 39.18%, 2.33 points lower than the prior year; cost growth +37.84% was 5.3 points faster than revenue growth +32.57%. Single-quarter gross margin ground down from 43.4% in Q1 2024 to 38.3% in Q3 this year.

So "first to move" must be viewed separately: what is immediately rewritten by new orders is contract liabilities; what has been slowly declining all along is gross margin. Understanding "first to move" as "the one that has not moved yet moves first" gets the answer backwards.

One easy confusion: Naura's third-quarter single-quarter revenue was 113.06 yi, only +1.31% year-on-year. The revenue side has already slowed first, but that is the result of last year's orders and acceptance rhythm, not of this letter. Using it to prove "when Applied Materials weakens, Naura falls" reverses the time order.

The market gave two directions on the same day

All three US semiconductor equipment companies fell together: Applied Materials -4.0%, Lam Research -4.8%, KLA -3.0%; all four memory companies fell together: Micron -5.8%, Western Digital -7.5%, Seagate -7.9%, SanDisk -6.6%; the optical module line fell even harder: Lumentum -18.6%, Ciena -11.3%, Applied Optoelectronics -9.5%. This is the entire AI hardware complex being sold together on the same trading day, not just an Applied Materials matter.

A-shares moved the opposite way: the six limit-up stocks were media and AI content (Jetsen Technology, CITIC Press, Mango Excellent Media, Huazhi Digital Media, Silkroad Visual, Guomai Culture, all at 20%), and in semiconductor materials Anji Technology +16.87%, turnover 22.2 yi. Same day, same semiconductors: US equipment falling, A-share materials rising. This is not proof, but it shows A-share money did not trade "US equipment weak" as "China equipment weak."

The strongest counterargument: in the year Applied Materials' China share fell from 35% to 28%, NAURA's contract liabilities went from 42.03 yi back to 53.01 yi — the two lines moved in opposite directions. The two most likely reasons for Applied Materials being weak next quarter are export controls preventing it from selling in China, and memory customers moving budget elsewhere; in both cases Chinese domestic equipment is a beneficiary. If so, what moves first is not contract liabilities heading down, but gross margin continuing down, while contract liabilities instead rises another quarter (that is exactly how it went in this year's second and third quarters). That would mean I wrongly tied "moves first" to "heads down" — that step is wrong.

What would count as me being wrong: looking at the 2026 annual report next April, if contract liabilities continue rising from 53.01 yi to above 60 yi while full-year 2026 gross margin falls below 38.5% (first three quarters cumulative 39.44%), then gross margin moved first and contract liabilities did not follow — this line is reversed. There is also an earlier one: on November 12, if Applied Materials' Q1 revenue guidance is no less than 102.5 yi US dollars, then the premise of "lower next quarter" simply does not hold, and this entire piece is void.

Source:
01 Applied Materials 8-K earnings release, exhibit EX-99.1 "exhibit991q32026earningsre.htm", 2026-08-13, accession 0001628280-26-056699 (third-quarter revenue 91.15 yi, GAAP gross margin 50.3%, China 28%, fourth-quarter guidance 102.5 yi and EPS 4.02).
02 Applied Materials 8-K earnings release, EX-99.1 "exhibit991q22026earningsre.htm", 2026-05-14, accession 0001628280-26-035071 (revenue 79.10 yi, gross margin 49.9%, China 27%).
03 Applied Materials 8-K earnings release, EX-99.1 "exhibit991q12026earningsre.htm", 2026-02-12, accession 0001628280-26-007661 (revenue 70.12 yi, gross margin 49.0%, China 30%).
04 Applied Materials 8-K earnings release, EX-99.1 "exhibit991q42025earningsre.htm", 2025-11-13, accession 0001628280-25-051998 (2025 fourth-quarter revenue 68.00 yi, gross margin 48.0%; first-quarter guidance left only revenue and EPS).
05 Applied Materials 8-K earnings release, EX-99.1 "exhibit991q32025earningsre.htm", 2025-08-14, accession 0000006951-25-000032 (most recent gross margin guidance given: fourth-quarter non-GAAP 48.1%).
06 NAURA "2026 Third Quarter Report", 2026-10-30, announcement 1225641389 (contract liabilities 53.01 yi, inventory 338.99 yi, long-term borrowings 115.86 yi, single-quarter revenue 113.06 yi year-on-year +1.31%).
07 NAURA "2026 Semi-Annual Report", 2026-08-26, announcement 1225501903 (contract liabilities at end of second quarter 53.20 yi, long-term borrowings 121.48 yi).
08 NAURA "2025 Annual Report", 2026-04-18, announcement 1225122918 (contract liabilities 42.91 yi versus 62.20 yi at end of prior year, inventory 286.27 yi, electronic process equipment gross margin 39.18%, long-term borrowings 129.73 yi).
09 NAURA "2026 First Quarter Report", 2026-04-30, announcement 1225259650 (contract liabilities 42.03 yi).
10 Market price moves and turnover: snapshot from this site's quotes, cited directly per user-side verified values, no document attached.

Original · 中文 (answer)

如果 11 月 12 日应用材料把下季说低了,北方华创第一个反应的科目是合同负债,落在 2026 年报里,不是毛利率,也不用等到 2027 一季报。

先把一个前提改掉:毛利率已经不在应用材料的指引表里了。2025 年 8 月 14 日那期还写着「下季非 GAAP 毛利率 48.1%」,从 2025 年 11 月 13 日那期开始,指引表只剩营收和 EPS 两行,2026 年 2 月、5 月、8 月三期都是这样。所以「下季毛利率指引更低」只可能出现在电话会上,不会出现在文件里。文件里能读到的「下季」是营收:8 月 13 日那期给的四季度营收 102.5 亿美元上下 5 亿,EPS 4.02 美元上下 0.20。

应用材料现在站在什么位置

三季度营收 91.15 亿美元,GAAP 毛利率 50.3%,非 GAAP 50.4%,毛利率连升四季:48.0、49.0、49.9、50.3。中国占比 28%,去年同期 35%,本财年前两季是 30% 和 27%。

一个毛利率在升、中国占比在掉的公司,下季往下走,最顺的解释不是中国需求塌了,而是它在中国的份额已经先掉完了。这两件事对北方华创的含义完全相反。

为什么是合同负债,为什么是 2026 年报

时间上对不上。11 月 12 日指引的是应用材料 2026 年 11 月到 2027 年 1 月那个季度。国内晶圆厂因为这封信改采购决定,最快也就是 11、12 月。

合同负债是时点数。北方华创 2026 年报的资产负债表日是 12 月 31 日,11-12 月签的单、收到的预付款,当天就进这一行。这是 11 月 12 日之后第一个能把新信息装进去的报表科目。

毛利率装不进去。2026 年报的营收和成本,到 12 月 31 日之前基本被已有订单和发货节奏定死;设备按验收确认收入,11-12 月签的单通常 2027 年才验收。毛利率是已确认收入上的比率,两个月的新单价格进不来。要等这批单验收,最快 2027 一季报,更可能在 2027 中报。

报期顺序也帮不上忙:2025 年报是 2026 年 4 月 18 日发的,2026 一季报是 4 月 30 日。年报在前,资产负债表日又早三个月。

期末合同负债(亿)当季营收(亿)当季毛利率
2024 年末62.20——
2025 年末42.91120.5237.2%
2026 年一季度末42.03103.2340.8%
2026 年二季度末53.2098.3839.3%
2026 年三季度末53.01113.0638.3%

表里五期,合同负债最高 62.20 亿、最低 42.03 亿,单季摆动 10 亿上下;同期单季毛利率在 37.2% 到 40.8% 之间,最大摆动 4.1 个点。按 2026 年前三季 314.67 亿营收算,1 个点毛利率是 3.15 亿元(估算)。合同负债一个季度的摆动抵得上毛利率动三四个点,它本来就是报表里最容易被新订单改写的一行。

客户预付的钱在变少

合同负债对存货:2024 年末 62.20 亿对 236.35 亿,26.3%;2026 年三季度末 53.01 亿对 338.99 亿,15.6%。客户预付的钱只盖住存货的六分之一。

2026 年前九个月存货多了 52.72 亿,合同负债只多了 10.11 亿,新增备货只有两成是客户先付的(估算),其余公司自己扛:长期借款 2025 年末 129.73 亿,比 2024 年末的 39.46 亿多出 90 亿,年报原话是「为满足订单、研发投入、并购需求」。这种结构下,新单慢下来第一个变的就是预收款。

毛利率不是没动,是它动的理由不是应用材料

2025 年报分行业表写得很直白:电子工艺装备收入 367.31 亿、成本 223.41 亿、毛利率 39.18%,比上年低 2.33 个点;成本增速 +37.84% 比收入增速 +32.57% 快 5.3 个点。单季毛利率从 2024 年一季度的 43.4% 磨到今年三季度的 38.3%。

所以「先动」要分开看:会被新订单立刻改写的是合同负债;一直在慢慢往下走的是毛利率。把「先动」理解成「还没动的那个先动」,这题就答反了。

容易混的一点:北方华创三季度单季营收 113.06 亿,同比只有 +1.31%。收入端已经先慢下来了,但那是去年订单和验收节奏的结果,不是这封信的结果。用它证明「应用材料一弱北方华创就掉」,时间顺序是反的。

盘面同一天给了两个方向

美股半导体设备三家一起跌:应用材料 -4.0%、泛林 -4.8%、科磊 -3.0%;存储四家一起跌:美光 -5.8%、西部数据 -7.5%、希捷 -7.9%、闪迪 -6.6%;光模块那条线跌得更狠:Lumentum -18.6%、Ciena -11.3%、应用光电 -9.5%。这是整条 AI 硬件在同一个交易日被一起卖,不是应用材料一家的事。

A 股方向相反:涨停的六只是传媒和 AI 内容(捷成股份、中信出版、芒果超媒、华智数媒、丝路视觉、果麦文化,都是 20%),半导体材料里的安集科技 +16.87%、成交 22.2 亿。同一天、同一个半导体,美股设备在跌、A 股材料在涨。这不算证明,但说明 A 股的钱没把「美股设备弱」当成「中国设备弱」来交易。

反方最强的一条:应用材料中国占比从 35% 掉到 28% 的这一年,北方华创的合同负债从 42.03 亿回到了 53.01 亿,两条线是反着走的。应用材料下季弱,最可能的两个原因是出口管制让它在中国卖不了、存储客户把预算挪去别处,这两种情况中国本土设备都是受益方。真那样的话,先动的不是合同负债往下,而是毛利率继续往下,合同负债反而再涨一季(它今年二、三季度就是这么走的)。那就说明我把「先动」和「往下」绑在了一起,这一步是错的。

什么情况算我看错:明年 4 月看 2026 年报,如果合同负债从 53.01 亿继续往上站上 60 亿,同时 2026 全年毛利率跌破 38.5%(前三季累计 39.44%),那就是毛利率先动、合同负债没跟,这条反了。还有一个更早的:11 月 12 日如果应用材料给的一季度营收指引不低于 102.5 亿美元,那「下季更低」这个前提根本不成立,整篇作废。

SOURCES11
  1. 01
    01 应用材料 8-K 业绩稿,附件 EX-99.1「exhibit991q32026earningsre.htm」,2026-08-13,accession 0001628280-26-056699(三季度营收 91.15 亿、GAAP 毛利率 50.3%、中国 28%、四季度指引 102.5 亿与 EPS 4.02)
  2. 02
    02 应用材料 8-K 业绩稿,EX-99.1「exhibit991q22026earningsre.htm」,2026-05-14,accession 0001628280-26-035071(营收 79.10 亿、毛利率 49.9%、中国 27%)
  3. 03
    03 应用材料 8-K 业绩稿,EX-99.1「exhibit991q12026earningsre.htm」,2026-02-12,accession 0001628280-26-007661(营收 70.12 亿、毛利率 49.0%、中国 30%)
  4. 04
    04 应用材料 8-K 业绩稿,EX-99.1「exhibit991q42025earningsre.htm」,2025-11-13,accession 0001628280-25-051998(2025 四季度营收 68.00 亿、毛利率 48.0%
  5. 05
    一季度指引只剩营收与 EPS)
  6. 06
    05 应用材料 8-K 业绩稿,EX-99.1「exhibit991q32025earningsre.htm」,2025-08-14,accession 0000006951-25-000032(最近一次给毛利率指引:四季度非 GAAP 48.1%)
  7. 07
    06 北方华创《2026 年三季度报告》,2026-10-30,公告 1225641389(合同负债 53.01 亿、存货 338.99 亿、长期借款 115.86 亿、单季营收 113.06 亿同比 +1.31%)
  8. 08
    07 北方华创《2026 年半年度报告》,2026-08-26,公告 1225501903(二季度末合同负债 53.20 亿、长期借款 121.48 亿)
  9. 09
    08 北方华创《2025 年年度报告》,2026-04-18,公告 1225122918(合同负债 42.91 亿对上年末 62.20 亿、存货 286.27 亿、电子工艺装备毛利率 39.18%、长期借款 129.73 亿)
  10. 10
    09 北方华创《2026 年一季度报告》,2026-04-30,公告 1225259650(合同负债 42.03 亿)
  11. 11
    10 盘面涨跌与成交额:本站行情快照,按用户侧已核数值直接引用,未附文件
Deep revision  v1 3805 chars, this revision 3393 chars · added 11-03 08:07
先给结论:先动的是合同负债,落在 2026 年报那个 12 月 31 日的截面上;毛利率在 2026 年报和 2027 一季报里都不会回应应用材料——那份年报的毛利率,已经被新品验证和大客户让价提前压掉了。

## 这条题的前提,一半是空的

应用材料的指引表从 2025 年 11 月 13 日那期起只剩两行:营收、非 GAAP EPS,毛利率不给了。「下季毛利率指引更低」在文件里查不到,只在电话会上。

能查到的是营收。8 月 13 日给的四季指引 102.5 亿美元,比三季实际 91.15 亿高 12.4%。这个基数上,下一季指引低于它近乎算术必然,不携带信息。

携带信息的是偏差:今年三次指引实际全部超过,分别超 2.4%、3.4%、1.8%。

## 中国区没掉,涨的是别处

三季中国区 25.06 亿美元,去年同期 25.48 亿,只少 1.6%;占比从 35% 掉到 28%,是分母涨了 25%。

涨的是美国和欧洲:6.83 到 13.67 亿翻倍,1.60 到 4.83 亿近三倍;半导体系统里 DRAM 占比 22% 升到 26%。CFO 原话是「particularly in DRAM as well as leading-edge foundry-logic and advanced packaging」。

下修若来自中国区,先得看到它从平转跌;真跌了是份额转移,合同负债往上,跟题目假设相反。

下修若来自 DRAM,通得过去:国内存储厂扩产节奏一变,新签订单跟着变,一个季度内就在合同负债上看到。

下修若来自先进逻辑和先进封装,基本不通——北方华创不在台积电、三星、英特尔的先进线上。

要听的不是数字,是那句归因。

## 两行数的灵敏度差一个量级

北方华创单季毛利率:2025 年 43.02%、41.29%、40.31%、37.15%,2026 年 40.77%、39.33%、38.33%,单季摆动 3.6 个点。小于 3 个点的变化,在单季里分不出来。

合同负债是另一个量级:2024 年一季度末 92.51 亿,八个季度降到 42.03 亿,少 55%;随后两季回到 53.01 亿。

```chart
type: line
title: 北方华创合同负债,2026 年二三季度收回十一亿
unit: 亿
labels: 2024Q4, 2025Q1, 2025Q2, 2025Q3, 2025Q4, 2026Q1, 2026Q2, 2026Q3
values: 62.14, 57.51, 50.05, 47.04, 42.91, 42.03, 53.20, 53.01
```

一个是时点数,一天能改写;一个是时段数,一段收入的加权。先动的必是它。

## 公司自己没把这笔账算在应用材料头上

三季报原话:

> 2026 年 1-9 月公司毛利率由 41.41% 下降到 39.44%,主要原因为:一是多款新产品正处于客户端验证导入过程中,零部件迭代升级成本增加较多,二是公司为部分大批量采购客户提供了一定的商务优惠。

一条是新品爬坡的成本,一条是对大客户让价换份额,没有一句是竞争加剧。两条明年一季度都不会消失:验证要一年以上,优惠是长期条款。

同一份报告里还有「销售费用增长与在手订单的增长趋势相匹配」,前三季销售费用 +41.38%。订单在涨、毛利率在跌,同时成立。

但公司只肯说有增长、不给数——能当方向,不能当量。

## 同行没一起降

| 公司 | 2026Q1 | 2026Q2 | 2026Q3 | 前三季累计 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 北方华创 | 40.77 | 39.33 | 38.33 | 39.44 |
| 中微公司 | 39.89 | 39.63 | 41.65 | 40.41 |
| 拓荆科技 | 41.69 | 40.58 | 42.47 | 41.65 |
| 华海清科 | 42.31 | 43.56 | 40.65 | 42.13 |
| 盛美上海 | 45.64 | 47.66 | 43.95 | 45.83 |

中微的刻蚀、拓荆的薄膜、华海的 CMP,三条线都正面撞应用材料:两家三季度是年内最高,华海比一季度降 1.7 个点。五家里降幅最大的是北方华创(2.4 个点),盛美同为 1.7 个点,它对标的是日本 SCREEN。

北方华创产品线最宽、新品最多,爬坡成本也最重,跟公司自己的归因对得上。若真是应用材料让价打出来的,压力该集中在正面对标的三家。

横截面基本排除了全行业价格战,剩下只有各家结构在分化。结构由订单构成决定,不是哪一季的指引:结构先变,两年后才变毛利率。

## 反方最强的一条

合同负债可能已经不是订单的好代理了。

2024 年一季度末,它覆盖存货的 51.7%(92.51 对 178.98);2026 年三季度末只剩 15.6%(53.01 对 338.99)。存货涨了 89%,预收掉了 43%。这可以是收款节点后移,也可以是备货跑在订单前面,报表分不开。

若预收比例继续走低,新单下降在预收里只体现三五个亿,那时先动的是存货周转。

更硬的一条:2026 年二、三季度,合同负债从 42.03 涨到 53.01,单季毛利率从 40.77 掉到 38.33,已经反着走过一次。把「合同负债先动」当规律会出错。

## 2026 年报看三个数,不是看一个

不是 53.01 亿这个绝对值,是三个一起看:合同负债、合同负债对存货的比例、应付账款。

前三季存货增加 52.72 亿,应付账款增加 62.16 亿,长期借款反而从 129.73 亿降到 115.86 亿。备货的钱主要来自上游账期。这种结构下新单慢下来,先紧的是付款节奏,不是预收余额。

还要扣一层时滞:合同负债是收到钱的口径,不是签合同的口径。11、12 月签的单,钱到账晚于签约,12 月 31 日那个截面只装得进一部分,剩下的落在 2027 一季报。

所以报期不是二选一:2026 年报(明年 4 月)看方向,2027 一季报看幅度。

## 什么算我看错

- 11 月 12 日给的 2027 财年一季度营收指引不低于 102.5 亿美元,前提不成立,整条作废。
- 2026 年报合同负债站上 60 亿、全年毛利率同时跌破 38.5%,那是毛利率先动、预收没跟。

来源:
01 Applied Materials, Inc. Form 8-K 附件 EX-99.1「exhibit991q32026earningsre.htm」,2026-08-13,accession 0001628280-26-056699(营收 91.15 亿、毛利率 50.3%、国区与分部数据、四季指引 102.5 亿美元、CFO Brice Hill 原话)。
02-04 同公司同文件三份:2026-05-14(0001628280-26-035071,营收 79.10 亿)、2026-02-12(0001628280-26-007661,营收 70.12 亿)、2025-11-13(0001628280-25-051998,营收 68.00 亿),对应指引 89.50、76.50 亿;最后一期起指引表不再列毛利率。
05 北方华创《2026 年第三季度报告》,2026-10-30,公告 1225641389(营收 314.67 亿、合同负债 53.01 亿、存货 338.99 亿、应付账款 180.19 亿、归因原话)。
06-08 北方华创《2025 年年度报告》2026-04-18 公告 1225122918(合同负债 42.91 亿、存货 286.27 亿)、《2026 年半年度报告》2026-08-26 公告 1225501903(合同负债 53.20 亿)、《2026 年第一季度报告》2026-04-30 公告 1225259650(合同负债 42.03 亿)。
09 北方华创《2024 年第一季度报告》资产负债表(合同负债 92.51 亿、存货 178.98 亿);同行单季毛利率由各期累计数倒算。
What this note did not do
  • whether the move continues into next quarter — that needs orders and capacity, which are not in this filing
  • who supplies whom in this chain — annual reports anonymise customers and suppliers into "Customer A"
  • how many quarters upstream price moves take to reach this gross margin — we have no upstream price series
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