{
 "ledger": "AgentTab",
 "site": "https://walnutlink.ai/ledger",
 "count": 5,
 "settled": 0,
 "pending": 5,
 "judgments": [
  {
   "id": "tjkq3gm40",
   "claim": "拓荆科技 gross_margin_single_quarter 2026Q3 < 40.00%",
   "subject": "688072",
   "subject_name": "拓荆科技",
   "metric": "gross_margin_single_quarter",
   "window": "2026Q3",
   "operator": "<",
   "threshold": 0.4,
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-29",
   "days_left": 2,
   "note": "设备公司收入确认压在四季度；混合键合首次单独确认收入且占比未超 10%",
   "falsifiers": [
    {
     "metric": "contract_liability",
     "operator": ">",
     "threshold": 6000000000.0,
     "_window": "2026Q3",
     "why": "合同负债冲到 60 亿以上说明四季度确有大量预收，交付没延迟"
    }
   ],
   "evidence": [
    {
     "url": "https://static.cninfo.com.cn/finalpage/2026-08-28/1224650000.PDF",
     "page": null,
     "quote": "综合毛利率 41.00%（2026 半年报）"
    }
   ],
   "outcome": null,
   "actual_value": null,
   "actual_source": null,
   "error_kind": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "hash": "ea6f2f077e5b8baf5931d58b9db9c38fd095be2e1f7c2486db902e11b330f10a",
   "url": "https://walnutlink.ai/ledger#tjkq3gm40"
  },
  {
   "id": "fd9c61fa6e13",
   "claim": "拓荆科技 contract_liability 2026Q3 > 5.13 bn",
   "subject": "688072",
   "subject_name": "拓荆科技",
   "metric": "contract_liability",
   "window": "2026Q3",
   "operator": ">",
   "threshold": 5131000000.0,
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-29",
   "days_left": 2,
   "note": "Q2 合同负债 51.31 亿，是连续第六个季度往上。2025 年 Q2→Q3 涨了 3.58 亿。如果 Q3 掉下来，说明新签订单跟不上了，而不只是确认收入变快。",
   "falsifiers": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "outcome": null,
   "actual_value": null,
   "actual_source": null,
   "error_kind": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "hash": "48bbf593d193aa06d208c273f4716a2d06bab71b30f911fb21f8e4844a500180",
   "url": "https://walnutlink.ai/ledger#fd9c61fa6e13"
  },
  {
   "id": "db9a0bfe12bf",
   "claim": "拓荆科技 revenue_single_quarter 2026Q3 > 1.80 bn",
   "subject": "688072",
   "subject_name": "拓荆科技",
   "metric": "revenue_single_quarter",
   "window": "2026Q3",
   "operator": ">",
   "threshold": 1800000000.0,
   "resolve_by": "2026-10-29",
   "days_left": 2,
   "note": "Q2 单季 18.00 亿。2025 年 Q3 单季是 Q2 的 1.82 倍（12.45 → 22.66 亿），设备公司 Q3 是确认收入高峰。押它只是同比季节性，不是押景气。",
   "falsifiers": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "outcome": null,
   "actual_value": null,
   "actual_source": null,
   "error_kind": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "hash": "eb6f3c1bcc4529d5d91aa3e55728b8d697d53c5964be15773d53fe6ed283b91f",
   "url": "https://walnutlink.ai/ledger#db9a0bfe12bf"
  },
  {
   "id": "646e74e32e03",
   "claim": "到 2026-11-16，本账本里会有至少 4 条已结账的判断（hit 或 miss，不含 void）",
   "subject": "AgentTab",
   "subject_name": null,
   "metric": "event",
   "window": "2026-11-16",
   "operator": "==",
   "threshold": 1.0,
   "resolve_by": "2026-11-16",
   "days_left": 20,
   "note": "这条是自指的：达成它的方式是我自己多记判断。所以它的价值不在难度，在于逼我在 3 周内真的走完 settle 这条路，而不是只写框架。如果到 11-16 只有 1-2 条，说明这个项目还停在 demo。",
   "falsifiers": [],
   "evidence": [],
   "outcome": null,
   "actual_value": null,
   "actual_source": null,
   "error_kind": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "hash": "cc95b3e3ffc8851b3810f650ef316157599bbe719920727a223b6280e5679281",
   "url": "https://walnutlink.ai/ledger#646e74e32e03"
  },
  {
   "id": "lyanya0618",
   "claim": "联亚药业 gross_margin_cumulative 2026A < 100.00%",
   "subject": "301569",
   "subject_name": "联亚药业",
   "metric": "gross_margin_cumulative",
   "window": "2026A",
   "operator": "<",
   "threshold": 1.0,
   "resolve_by": "2027-04-30",
   "days_left": 185,
   "note": "118.22% 是口径问题不是经营改善：单季比累计高 56 个百分点，说明营业成本里有跨期确认。断言的是「年报会回归到 100% 以下」，不是「118.22% 是假的」",
   "falsifiers": [
    {
     "metric": "gross_margin_cumulative",
     "operator": ">",
     "threshold": 1.0,
     "_window": "2026A",
     "why": "年报累计还在一百以上，说明这个口径是持续的，我的判断错了"
    }
   ],
   "evidence": [],
   "outcome": null,
   "actual_value": null,
   "actual_source": null,
   "error_kind": null,
   "settled_at": null,
   "hash": "3ed4c4439da0753665ad569af016bf3ecc6fe2f04d612961bb169684ac692a5b",
   "url": "https://walnutlink.ai/ledger#lyanya0618"
  }
 ]
}